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Sep 14

NFL 2016 TABRankings

WEEK 8: RANKINGS WIDE OPEN AFTER TOP TWO
After the most recent slate of games featured THREE match-ups among top eight teams, including TWO among top five teams, it seemed like a nearly guarantee that there would be a shake-up in the top eight. However, due to Minnesota’s upset loss in Chicago in handily fashion, things are looking to be wide open after the top two spots.

The New England Patriots are basically the top team by default, even if the surprising Jamie Collins casted some doubt about the defense that few previously had. The Dallas Cowboys are the second-best by default, even if there are still questions looming on defense, especially with Morris Claiborne’s sports hernia injury. Beyond yet, it’s really anybody’s guess.

So how do the TABRankings see it for now? Check them the rankings below!

The TABRankings opponent adjustment:
[(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR] * X
NOTE: The multiple X will be determined as the variable that fits the equation: (1/6) * TABR IQR = X * Adjustment IQR.
For this week, the multiple was determined to be 0.8.

The TABRankings top eight:
1New England Patriots, 2Dallas Cowboys, 3Minnesota Vikings, 4Kansas City Chiefs
5Atlanta Falcons, 6Denver Broncos, 7Philadelphia Eagles, 8Oakland Raiders

True TABRankings — Week 8

Rank LW Team Record Raw TABR Adjustment True TABR
1 2 New England Patriots 7-1 457.34 (1st) -14.19 (24th) 443.15
2 3 Dallas Cowboys 6-1 419.17 (2nd) -22.32 (28th) 396.85
3 1 Minnesota Vikings 5-2 398.73 (3rd) -14.93 (26th) 383.80
4 10 Kansas City Chiefs 5-2 364.44 (4th) -11.34 (22nd) 353.10
5 8 Atlanta Falcons 5-3 335.32 (6th) 16.95 (9th) 345.27
6 11 Denver Broncos 6-2 363.94 (5th) -25.50 (29th) 338.44
7 5 Philadelphia Eagles 4-3 322.49 (9th) 4.94 (15th) 327.43
8 13 Oakland Raiders 6-2 330.18 (8th) -6.58 (18th) 323.60
9 9 Pittsburgh Steelers 4-3 295.15 (11th) 27.18 (5th) 322.33
10 4 Buffalo Bills 4-4 305.37 (10th) -1.09 (16th) 304.28
11 7 Seattle Seahawks 4-2-1 333.29 (7th) -41.18 (31st) 292.11
12 6 Green Bay Packers 4-3 278.77 (12th) 11.81 (12th) 290.58
13 16 Houston Texans 5-3 225.19 (15th) 41.29 (1st) 266.48
14 14 San Diego Chargers 3-5 212.77 (17th) 30.33 (3rd) 245.10
15 15 Washington Redskins 4-3-1 248.69 (14th) -6.74 (19th) 241.95
16 23 New Orleans Saints 3-4 208.28 (19th) 29.64 (4th) 237.92
17 12 Arizona Cardinals 3-4-1 250.74 (13th) -16.71 (27th) 234.03
18 17 New York Giants 4-3 191.75 (20th) 34.02 (2nd) 225.73
19 19 Cincinnati Bengals 3-4-1 185.93 (21st) 18.29 (7th) 204.22
20 20 Miami Dolphins 3-4 160.61 (24th) 17.42 (8th) 178.03
21 21 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-4 180.73 (22nd) -4.80 (17th) 175.93
22 25 Tennessee Titans 4-4 215.62 (16th) -40.07 (30th) 175.55
23 18 Detroit Lions 4-4 177.86 (23rd) -13.10 (23rd) 164.76
24 22 Baltimore Ravens 3-4 210.47 (18th) -46.83 (32nd) 163.64
25 28 Chicago Bears 2-6 143.99 (25th) 15.94 (10th) 159.93
26 24 Los Angeles Rams 3-4 143.36 (26th) -14.54 (25th) 128.82
27 26 Indianapolis Colts 3-5 130.68 (27th) -8.97 (20th) 121.71
28 31 Carolina Panthers 2-5 101.37 (29th) 19.53 (6th) 120.90
29 27 New York Jets 3-5 108.28 (28th) 7.51 (13th) 115.79
30 30 San Francisco 49ers 1-6 42.89 (31st) 14.20 (11th) 57.09
31 29 Jacksonville Jaguars 2-5 46.27 (30th) -9.98 (21st) 36.29
32 32 Cleveland Browns 0-8 -30.51 (32nd) 6.97 (14th) -23.54

Mean: 229.73 points; Standard Deviation: 110.74 points

The Vikings end up in the third spot, somehow keeping near the top despite two consecutive bad performances. We don’t personally have such confidence in Minnesota, though. We’d look more towards the AFC West, which is by default the best division right now with three teams in the top eight. We’d also more towards experienced playoff teams are more likely than not to have everything come together over the second half of the season (see: Seattle Seahawks). For now, though, everyone just has to embrace the mess.

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