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Sep 14

NFL 2016 TABRankings

WEEK 7: LOSSES DON’T DETER VIKINGS AND BILLS’ TOP-4 STANDING
Despite both Minnesota and Buffalo running into obstacles on the road in Week 7, the two teams remain in the top four in the TABRankings. It set the theme for a week in which there weren’t many major changes in the rankings. Only two teams moved by more than five spots this week. That probably should be expected when 15 games in the week were determined by 18 points or fewer. There was no true blowout to boost a team, and there was no true clunker to sink a team’s stock.

So how do the new rankings look? Check them out below!

The TABRankings opponent adjustment:
[(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR] * X
NOTE: The multiple X will be determined as the variable that fits the equation: (1/6) * TABR IQR = X * Adjustment IQR.
For this week, the multiple was determined to be (2/3).

The TABRankings top eight:
1Minnesota Vikings, 2New England Patriots, 3Dallas Cowboys, 4Buffalo Bills
5Philadelphia Eagles, 6Green Bay Packers, 7Seattle Seahawks, 8Atlanta Falcons

True TABRankings — Week 7

Rank LW Team Record Raw TABR Adjustment True TABR
1 1 Minnesota Vikings 5-1 479.59 (1st) -13.42 (24th) 466.17
2 2 New England Patriots 6-1 434.26 (2nd) -12.55 (23rd) 421.71
3 4 Dallas Cowboys 5-1 407.44 (3rd) -36.60 (31st) 370.84
4 3 Buffalo Bills 4-3 375.25 (4th) -22.14 (27th) 353.11
5 8 Philadelphia Eagles 4-2 363.87 (5th) -11.60 (20th) 352.27
6 9 Green Bay Packers 4-2 313.81 (10th) 9.33 (10th) 323.14
7 6 Seattle Seahawks 4-1-1 359.17 (6th) -36.81 (32nd) 322.36
8 5 Atlanta Falcons 4-3 315.46 (9th) 3.14 (16th) 318.60
9 7 Pittsburgh Steelers 4-3 294.43 (13th) 15.44 (6th) 309.87
10 12 Kansas City Chiefs 4-2 316.87 (8th) -11.83 (21st) 305.04
11 15 Denver Broncos 5-2 329.17 (7th) -25.87 (28th) 303.30
12 14 Arizona Cardinals 3-3-1 301.04 (12th) 2.11 (17th) 303.15
13 11 Oakland Raiders 5-2 303.69 (11th) -10.36 (19th) 290.33
14 17 San Diego Chargers 3-4 247.90 (14th) 6.82 (11th) 254.72
15 10 Washington Redskins 4-3 244.52 (15th) 3.52 (15th) 248.04
16 13 Houston Texans 4-3 196.21 (19th) 31.99 (3rd) 228.20
17 18 New York Giants 4-3 191.99 (20th) 34.77 (2nd) 226.76
18 22 Detroit Lions 4-3 215.49 (16th) -13.74 (25th) 201.75
19 25 Cincinnati Bengals 3-4 182.47 (21st) 5.05 (13th) 187.52
20 28 Miami Dolphins 3-4 165.63 (23rd) 14.48 (7th) 180.11
21 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-3 197.58 (18th) -21.43 (26th) 176.15
22 16 Baltimore Ravens 3-4 210.62 (17th) -34.95 (30th) 175.67
23 21 New Orleans Saints 2-4 166.07 (22nd) 3.99 (14th) 170.06
24 19 Los Angeles Rams 3-4 157.53 (25th) 6.66 (12th) 164.19
25 20 Tennessee Titans 3-4 153.30 (26th) -12.09 (22nd) 141.21
26 29 Indianapolis Colts 3-4 159.37 (24th) -28.49 (29th) 130.88
27 31 New York Jets 2-5 69.02 (29th) 40.51 (1st) 109.53
28 23 Chicago Bears 1-6 77.79 (28th) 13.06 (9th) 90.85
29 26 Jacksonville Jaguars 2-4 95.45 (27th) -7.85 (18th) 87.60
30 27 San Francisco 49ers 1-6 43.88 (30th) 21.65 (4th) 65.53
31 30 Carolina Panthers 1-5 43.85 (31st) 16.43 (5th) 60.28
32 32 Cleveland Browns 0-7 -32.39 (32nd) 13.35 (8th) -19.04

Mean: 228.75 points; Standard Deviation: 114.07 points

Just by looking at the top eight, we can see how there isn’t a truly dominant team at this point of the season. The Patriots (second) are honestly the best of the bench, once the four games without Tom Brady are put into proper context. However, the lack of a top team isn’t what stands out the most. Just look at the next teams up. Does Dallas truly look like a team worthy of third in the rankings? How about Buffalo at number four? Even Packers (sixth) and Falcons (eighth) probably aren’t ranked as high in other seasons, given their current statistical strengths and weaknesses. The 2016 season truly looks like a season for which very good might be good enough to be elite.

Consider that 17 teams have a winning record, an 18th has a .500 record, and another seven own a 3-4 record. This also seems to indicate that there are very few truly bad teams, something which we firmly believed was the case when we made the 2016 NFL Preview Season Predictions. Through 107 games, only 12 have been decided by 20+ points (for a 25.75-point differential average). Only two were decided by 30+ points, the Week 2 Buccaneers-Cardinals game and the Week 3 Steelers-Eagles game.

Will we some blowouts in Week 8, and if so, will they make a major impact on the rankings? We’ll have to find out.

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