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Sep 14

NFL 2016 TABRankings

WEEK 6: LOSSES IN TOP 10 CAUSES SHAKE-UP AMONG LEAGUE’S BEST
Besides Miami’s win at home over Pittsburgh, Week 6 went without major surprises. However, that didn’t stop from the top 10 from experiencing several setbacks. While Week 5 left the NFL with one unbeaten and nine one-loss teams, Week 6 cut down that list by 60 percent. The top 10 saw losers this weekend in the Eagles (2nd), Steelers (3rd), Falcons (5th), Raiders (7th), Broncos (9th) and Packers (10th). Considering the top-ranked Vikings were on bye, that left only a 3-6 record for the top 10.

Surprisingly, eight of the top 10 remain in the rankings. How exactly did the rankings shake out? Check them out below.

The TABRankings opponent adjustment:
[(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR] * X
NOTE: The multiple X will be determined as the variable that fits the equation: (1/6) * TABR IQR = X * Adjustment IQR.
For this week, the multiple was determined to be 0.55.

The TABRankings top eight:
1Minnesota Vikings, 2New England Patriots, 3Buffalo Bills, 4Dallas Cowboys
5Atlanta Falcons, 6Seattle Seahawks, 7Pittsburgh Steelers, 8Philadelphia Eagles

True TABRankings — Week 6

Rank LW Team Record Raw TABR Adjustment True TABR
1 1 Minnesota Vikings 5-0 563.16 (1st) -26.38 (29th) 536.78
2 4 New England Patriots 5-1 422.57 (2nd) -22.54 (27th) 400.03
3 6 Buffalo Bills 4-2 407.93 (3rd) -13.00 (22nd) 394.93
4 8 Dallas Cowboys 5-1 406.34 (4th) -30.71 (30th) 375.63
5 5 Atlanta Falcons 4-2 341.83 (7th) -7.21 (17th) 334.62
6 11 Seattle Seahawks 4-1 369.10 (5th) -46.29 (32nd) 322.81
7 3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4-2 341.98 (6th) -22.51 (26th) 319.47
8 2 Philadelphia Eagles 3-2 338.27 (8th) -24.09 (28th) 314.18
9 10 Green Bay Packers 3-2 266.56 (14th) 32.74 (3rd) 299.30
10 14 Washington Redskins 4-2 285.34 (10th) 8.33 (10th) 293.67
11 7 Oakland Raiders 4-2 283.43 (11th) 9.75 (9th) 293.18
12 17 Kansas City Chiefs 3-2 289.89 (9th) -2.65 (16th) 287.24
13 12 Houston Texans 4-2 252.81 (15th) 29.79 (4th) 282.60
14 15 Arizona Cardinals 3-3 283.02 (12th) -10.49 (20th) 272.53
15 9 Denver Broncos 4-2 268.86 (13th) -37.18 (30th) 231.68
16 13 Baltimore Ravens 3-3 242.64 (16th) -11.45 (21st) 231.19
17 23 San Diego Chargers 2-4 233.26 (17th) -9.79 (19th) 223.47
18 18 New York Giants 3-3 161.62 (22nd) 52.72 (1st) 214.34
19 16 Los Angeles Rams 3-3 193.17 (19th) 7.99 (11th) 201.16
20 20 Tennessee Titans 3-3 187.58 (20th) -2.00 (14th) 185.58
21 25 New Orleans Saints 2-3 193.73 (18th) -9.71 (18th) 184.02
22 21 Detroit Lions 3-3 181.89 (21st) -13.99 (13th) 167.90
23 24 Chicago Bears 1-5 141.33 (24th) 3.36 (12th) 144.69
24 19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-3 145.05 (23rd) -2.37 (15th) 142.68
25 22 Cincinnati Bengals 2-4 109.96 (26th) 15.65 (8th) 125.61
26 28 Jacksonville Jaguars 2-3 136.82 (25th) -18.18 (25th) 118.64
27 26 San Francisco 49ers 1-5 82.78 (29th) 29.40 (5th) 112.18
28 32 Miami Dolphins 2-4 96.90 (28th) 2.85 (13th) 99.75
29 30 Indianapolis Colts 2-4 103.13 (27th) -15.37 (24th) 87.76
30 27 Carolina Panthers 1-5 43.79 (30th) 19.50 (6th) 63.29
31 29 New York Jets 1-5 16.68 (31st) 38.43 (2nd) 55.11
32 31 Cleveland Browns 0-6 -17.36 (32nd) 17.48 (7th) 0.12

Mean: 228.63 points; Standard Deviation: 118.63 points

The Minnesota Vikings are now significantly ahead of the rest in the NFL, which is probably fitting of the lone unbeaten team. They are a whole standard deviation ahead of the second-ranked New England Patriots. That just goes to show  As for the rest, perhaps we need to start the hyping up the third-ranked Buffalo Bills. After an 0-2 start that seemed to fit right at home with Buffalo’s playoff-free drought since 1999, the Bills have dominated in their last four games. They’ve improved by 19 spots in the past four weeks.

Washington made similar progress since its 0-2 start, winning four consecutive games and improving by 14 spots to make the top 10. And yet, that’s only third-best among NFC East teams. Clearly, this division is playing best so far in 2016. It’s not just shown in the 11-4 record in inter-divisional games. but with a mean rank of 10.  The Giants are the worst of the division, and yet they own a .500 record while playing against the toughest schedule thus far. It’s nice change of pace for a division that has struggled with inconsistency in recent years. Perhaps 9-7 or 10-6 won’t be enough to win the division this time.

Somehow, this isn’t the biggest change in the past four weeks. The Carolina Panthers dropped 29 spots in four weeks, going from a 1-1 record (with a one-point loss) to completely lost at 1-5. Just one season after being dominant with a 15-1 record, the Panthers are truly playing terrible football. The 31st-ranked Jets are also truly terrible, despite starting 1-5 as we expected. The problem is that New York completely reverted back to its turnover issues of the 2014 season. The Jets are going to have fix those problems to get back at least to competitive form over the final 10 weeks. Oh, how one year can make such a big difference.

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