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Sep 14

NFL 2016 TABRankings

WEEK 5: EAGLES AND PACKERS PUT AN END TO 2015 ADJUSTMENTS
With the Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) and Green Bay Packers (3-1) playing their fourth game of the season, we have officially retired the 2015 numbers from the 2016 TABRankings discussion. The results for Week 5 are available below. Make sure to check back in the each week for the newest installment of the TABRankings. We will be publishing these results weekly to see how each team progresses!

The TABRankings opponent adjustment:
[(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR] * X
NOTE: The multiple X will be determined as the variable that fits the equation: (1/6) * TABR IQR = X * Adjustment IQR.
For this week, the multiple was determined to be 0.5.

The TABRankings top eight:
1Minnesota Vikings, 2Philadelphia Eagles, 3Pittsburgh Steelers, 4New England Patriots
5Atlanta Falcons, 6Buffalo Bills, 7Oakland Raiders, 8Dallas Cowboys

True TABRankings — Week 5

Rank LW Team Record Raw TABR Adjustment True TABR
1 1 Minnesota Vikings 5-0 563.93 (1st) -26.55 (28th) 537.38
2 4 Philadelphia Eagles 3-1 471.00 (2nd) -30.93 (29th) 440.07
3 2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4-1 419.39 (3rd) -3.10 (18th) 416.23
4 5 New England Patriots 4-1 440.58 (6th) -33.37 (30th) 407.21
5 6 Atlanta Falcons 4-1 410.83 (4th) -10.48 (24th) 400.35
6 7 Buffalo Bills 3-2 379.30 (7th) 4.21 (16th) 383.51
7 9 Oakland Raiders 4-1 369.92 (8th) -5.80 (19th) 364.12
8 8 Dallas Cowboys 4-1 402.22 (5th) -42.02 (31st) 360.20
9 3 Denver Broncos 4-1 342.84 (9th) -26.16 (27th) 316.68
10 10 Green Bay Packers 3-1 307.07 (11th) 6.49 (13th) 313.56
11 11 Seattle Seahawks 3-1 340.92 (10th) -67.08 (32nd) 273.84
12 12 Houston Texans 3-2 227.38 (14th) 33.25 (4th) 260.63
13 13 Baltimore Ravens 3-2 262.45 (12th) -7.11 (21st) 255.34
14 17 Washington Redskins 3-2 229.69 (13th) 4.99 (15th) 234.68
15 24 Arizona Cardinals 2-3 218.93 (16th) 14.81 (9th) 233.74
16 14 Los Angeles Rams 3-2 214.67 (17th) 5.27 (14th) 219.94
17 15 Kansas City Chiefs 2-2 219.05 (15th) -6.75 (20th) 212.30
18 18 New York Giants 2-3 130.49 (23rd) 46.48 (1st) 176.97
19 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-3 148.84 (20th) 11.49 (10th) 160.33
20 28 Tennessee Titans 2-3 142.02 (22nd) 18.06 (8th) 160.08
21 31 Detroit Lions 2-3 158.04 (19th) -0.58 (17th) 157.46
22 16 Cincinnati Bengals 2-3 143.83 (21st) 7.54 (12th) 151.37
23 21 San Diego Chargers 1-4 164.89 (18th) -22.72 (25th) 142.17
24 22 Chicago Bears 1-4 111.05 (25th) 22.17 (6th) 133.22
25 23 New Orleans Saints 1-3 106.06 (28th) 20.10 (7th) 126.16
26 20 San Francisco 49ers 1-4 108.92 (26th) 10.44 (11th) 119.36
27 19 Carolina Panthers 1-4 71.80 (29th) 43.12 (2nd) 114.92
28 25 Jacksonville Jaguars 1-3 114.76 (24th) -9.21 (22nd) 105.55
29 27 New York Jets 1-4 49.70 (30th) 35.83 (3rd) 85.53
30 29 Indianapolis Colts 2-3 107.28 (27th) -25.26 (26th) 82.02
31 32 Cleveland Browns 0-5 -20.52 (32nd) 26.50 (5th) 5.98
32 30 Miami Dolphins 1-4 5.46 (31st) -9.74 (23rd) -4.28

Mean: 229.58 points; Standard Deviation: 133.36 points

Philadelphia actually hopped up two spots despite losing to the Lions (31st then, 21st now). That has to do with the Eagles shedding the 2015 adjustment. Green Bay held on to the 10th spot, as the Packers seem to be quite similar to their 2015 form. Their ranking should improve once the expected Aaron Rodgers regression goes into effect. If Rodgers doesn’t get there, Green Bay may sit still for a while.

Looking elsewhere in the rankings, we see the Bills (6th) sitting inside a picket fence. At 3-2, they are the lone multi-loss team to crack the top 11. They have truly put the 0-2 start in the rearview mirror. Beating three teams in the top 16 in as many weeks certainly turned a bleak picture rosy. Besides maybe the Cardinals (15th) or Chiefs (17th), the Bills are the only multi-loss team to truly flash brilliance on both offense and defense at some point this season. We’re not saying they’re real contenders just yet, but it’s always a plus to be capable on both sides of the ball. After all, balance wins championships.

Only three of the current top eight teams (Vikings, Steelers and Patriots) made the postseason in 2015. Does that mean we’re in store for a vastly different narrative in 2016? The answer might honestly be “no,” even if the defending NFC champion Panthers look quite awful so far. Teams like the Broncos, Packers, Seahawks, and Texans are all waiting just outside the top eight.

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