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Sep 14

NFL 2016 TABRankings

WEEK 4: SEVERAL TEAMS MAKE LARGE MOVES IN THE RANKINGS
Without any disrespect to the now top-ranked Minnesota Vikings, Week 4 is generally all about the teams shoot up or crash down the rankings. The 2015 adjustments finally no longer matter for 30 of the 32 teams. Teams with a great 2015 record and poor 2016 record are most likely to crash, while teams with a poor 2015 record and great 2016 record are most likely to shoot. There are also some teams with a huge win or huge loss taking advantage of the four-game sample size. In total, EIGHT teams moved by eight spots or more.

For the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles, who still have only played three games after the Week 4 bye, they will feature some TABR from 2015 and some TABR from 2016. The 2016 totals from the above formula will be called the Raw TABR. Additionally, there will be the 2015 TABR. The two parts combine to create the True TABR for Week 4.

The TABRankings opponent adjustment formula for teams with three games played:
(Raw TABR * 0.75) + (2015 TABR * 0.25) = True TABR

The TABRankings opponent adjustment for teams with four games played:
[(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR] * X
NOTE: The multiple X will be determined as the variable that fits the equation: (1/6) * TABR IQR = X * Adjustment IQR.
For this week, the multiple was determined to be 0.4.

With now all that put together, the results for Week 4 are available below. Make sure to check back in the each week for the newest installment of the TABRankings. We will be publishing these results weekly to see how each team progresses!

The TABRankings top eight:
1Minnesota Vikings, 2Pittsburgh Steelers, 3Denver Broncos, 4Philadelphia Eagles
5New England Patriots, 6Atlanta Falcons, 7Buffalo Bills, 8Dallas Cowboys

True TABRankings — Week 4

Rank LW Team Record Raw TABR Adjustment True TABR
1 3 Minnesota Vikings 4-0 521.07 -30.11 490.96
2 10 Pittsburgh Steelers 3-1 404.05 20.08 424.13
3 2 Denver Broncos 4-0 468.25 -45.52 422.73
4 4 Philadelphia Eagles 3-0 486.14 153.42 402.96*
5 1 New England Patriots 3-1 358.52 -8.13 350.39
6 15 Atlanta Falcons 3-1 376.40 -29.28 347.12
7 17 Buffalo Bills 2-2 326.63 -4.07 322.56
8 14 Dallas Cowboys 3-1 348.15 -26.68 321.47
9 12 Oakland Raiders 3-1 327.46 -6.35 321.11
10 8 Green Bay Packers 2-1 274.29 426.90 312.44*
11 6 Seattle Seahawks 3-1 341.67 -33.16 308.51
12 13 Houston Texans 3-1 308.49 -15.35 293.14
13 9 Baltimore Ravens 3-1 305.44 -13.24 292.20
14 19 Los Angeles Rams 3-1 295.87 -20.75 275.12
15 4 Kansas City Chiefs 2-2 218.00 6.71 224.71
16 20 Cincinnati Bengals 2-2 203.83 8.70 212.53
17 21 Washington Redskins 2-2 200.71 1.26 201.97
18 16 New York Giants 2-2 160.59 26.87 187.46
19 7 Carolina Panthers 1-3 116.05 61.57 177.62
20 24 San Francisco 49ers 1-3 157.78 19.39 177.17
21 18 San Diego Chargers 1-3 195.19 -40.18 155.01
22 30 Chicago Bears 1-3 121.99 30.60 152.59
23 28 New Orleans Saints 1-3 106.62 15.18 121.80
24 11 Arizona Cardinals 1-3 135.99 -16.19 119.80
25 32 Jacksonville Jaguars 1-3 113.62 -6.51 107.11
26 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-3 64.92 36.87 101.79
27 22 New York Jets 1-3 67.16 18.23 95.39
28 29 Tennessee Titans 1-3 55.84 32.02 87.86
29 25 Indianapolis Colts 1-3 67.81 -5.98 61.83
30 27 Miami Dolphins 1-3 55.42 0.39 55.81
31 23 Detroit Lions 1-3 71.03 -38.79 32.24
32 31 Cleveland Browns 0-4 7.69 13.99 21.68

Mean: 224.35 points; Standard Deviation: 127.39 points

Let’s look at the big movers. The Steelers (up eight spots) dominated the Chiefs (down 11 spots) in wire-to-wire fashion. The Falcons (up nine spots) are looking like the lone elite offense through four weeks. The Bills (up 10 spots) just shut out the Patriots on the road. The Panthers (down 12 spots) are looking increasingly poor after dominating the 2015 rankings by season’s end. The Cardinals (down 13 spots) follow a similar dynamic, playing poorly thus far after last year’s great play. Finally, the Bears (up eight spots) earned a divisional win to pump up the point total in the record stat category, knocking down the Lions (down eight spots) in the process.

Expect a few more big moves until the season moves into the latter portions of the season.

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