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Sep 14

NFL 2016 TABRankings

WEEK 3: UNDEFEATED TEAMS HEADLINE RANKINGS AS EXPECTED
As the list of undefeated teams gets shorter by the week, odds are remaining ones climb higher on the list. Judging by this week’s rankings, there may soon be no place to go higher. Four of the five 3-0 teams comprise the top of these rankings. Same may interpret it that the odd team out is the most likely team to regress, and we wouldn’t be quick to argue against that. However, for now, we’d like to focus on those top four teams. If these teams improve to 4-0, it’s just one more week that they prove to be a legitimate top team.

This week’s rankings will feature some TABR from 2015 and some TABR from 2016. The 2016 totals from the above formula will be called the Raw TABR. Additionally, there will be the 2015 TABR. The two parts combine to create the True TABR for Week 3. Throughout the next few weeks, the 2015 TABR will have a decreasing influence. That means next week’s rankings will look at 2015 less, and so on. By Week 4, last year’s numbers will play no role in the TABRankings. We’ll have a nice sample size by then.

The TABRankings opponent adjustment for Week 3:
(Raw TABR * 0.75) + (2015 TABR * 0.25) = True TABR

With now all that put together, the results for Week 3 are available below. Make sure to check back in the each week for the newest installment of the TABRankings. We will be publishing these results weekly to see how each team progresses!

The TABRankings top eight:
1New England Patriots, 2Denver Broncos, 3Minnesota Vikings, 4Philadelphia Eagles
5Kansas City Chiefs, 6Seattle Seahawks, 7Carolina Panthers, 8Green Bay Packers

True TABRankings — Week 3

Rank LW Team Record Raw TABR 2015 TABR True TABR
1 2 New England Patriots 3-0 454.16 (2nd) 524.75 (4th) 471.81
2 3 Denver Broncos 3-0 365.05 (4th) 593.76 (2nd) 422.23
3 6 Minnesota Vikings 3-0 425.71 (3rd) 384.56 (10th) 415.42
4 12 Philadelphia Eagles 3-0 486.14 (1st) 153.42 (22nd) 402.96
5 7 Kansas City Chiefs 2-1 324.67 (6th) 556.28 (3rd) 382.57
6 9 Seattle Seahawks 2-1 287.87 (8th) 471.33 (6th) 333.74
7 1 Carolina Panthers 1-2 191.46 (18th) 724.43 (1st) 324.71
8 11 Green Bay Packers 2-1 274.29 (9th) 426.90 (9th) 312.44
9 15 Baltimore Ravens 3-0 364.20 (5th) 104.37 (26th) 299.24
10 4 Pittsburgh Steelers 2-1 248.75 (12th) 440.67 (8th) 296.73
11 5 Arizona Cardinals 1-2 220.97 (16th) 506.26 (5th) 292.29
12 18 Oakland Raiders 2-1 261.34 (11th) 229.69 (16th) 253.43
13 8 Houston Texans 2-1 232.81 (14th) 302.51 (11th) 250.24
14 25 Dallas Cowboys 2-1 309.97 (7th) 42.70 (29th) 243.15
15 21 Atlanta Falcons 2-1 262.69 (10th) 147.13 (23rd) 233.80
16 14 New York Giants 2-1 224.94 (15th) 164.48 (20th) 209.83
17 22 Buffalo Bills 1-2 192.91 (17th) 259.62 (14th) 209.59
18 16 San Diego Chargers 1-2 237.39 (13th) 114.93 (25th) 206.78
19 19 Los Angeles Rams 2-1 190.93 (19th) 235.10 (15th) 201.97
20 10 Cincinnati Bengals 1-2 91.82 (28th) 459.99 (7th) 183.86
21 24 Washington Redskins 1-2 130.20 (22nd) 294.45 (12th) 171.26
22 13 New York Jets 1-2 112.41 (26th) 286.84 (13th) 156.02
23 17 Detroit Lions 1-2 134.50 (21st) 204.48 (17th) 152.00
24 20 San Francisco 49ers 1-2 169.26 (20th) 58.21 (28th) 141.50
25 27 Indianapolis Colts 1-2 127.47 (23rd) 173.51 (19th) 138.98
26 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-2 115.20 (25th) 115.26 (24th) 115.22
27 30 Miami Dolphins 1-2 119.99 (24th) 59.39 (27th) 104.84
28 23 New Orleans Saints 0-3 52.12 (29th) 197.55 (18th) 88.48
29 29 Tennessee Titans 1-2 110.82 (27th) -48.74 (32nd) 70.93
30 28 Chicago Bears 0-3 2.09 (32nd) 158.05 (21st) 41.08
31 31 Cleveland Browns 0-3 35.82 (30th) 28.51 (30th) 33.99
32 32 Jacksonville Jaguars 0-3 9.18 (31st) 13.72 (31st) 10.32

Mean: 224.11 points; Standard Deviation: 121.10 points

So the Ravens (ninth) is the 3-0 team that is the “odd man out.” They’ve defeated the 17th-ranked Bills by six points. They’ve defeated the 31st-ranked Browns by five points. They’ve defeated the last-ranked Jaguars by two points. In short, that 3-0 record could very much be misleading. This is certainly the team that needs to prove itself more than any other 3-0 team.

On the flip side, outside of maybe just maybe the Saints (28th), the 0-3 teams truly look like the worst teams in the league. The Bears (30th) look pretty hopeless, with a combination of an underwhelming offense and a rebuilding defense. The Browns (31st) were worked into 2015 form, despite our hopes that Hue Jackson could inject some Year One juice into this team. The Jaguars (32nd) are barely — if at all — better off than they were last year, when they consistently played from behind and became professional window dressers.

Come next week, we’ll see 30 of the 32 teams shed the weight from the 2015 season. We’ll be able to start assessing without any regard for sample size limitations. Odds are the remaining undefeated teams will once again lead the rankings.

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