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Sep 14

NFL 2016 TABRankings

WEEK 2: MINNESOTA AND HOUSTON PICK UP STEAM, WASHINGTON FALLS FAST
With two weeks now in the books, the inevitable hype and panic situations are likely to good into play. If your team is 2-0 and looked good doing so, there will be many calls to “believe the hype.” Meanwhile, if your team is 0-2 despite high expectations, there will be many calls to “hit the panic button.” As any long-time reader would expect, we say not to be consumed by either hype or panic just yet. Sure, there are some stronger cases (Minnesota’s hype, Houston’s hype and Washington’s panic) than others, there are many things are can undo the early season narrative. It can change as soon as Week 3 (re: see our predictions tomorrow).

This weak’s rankings will once again feature some TABR from 2015 and some TABR from 2016. The 2016 totals from the above formula will be called the Raw TABR. Additionally, there will be the 2015 TABR. The two parts combine to create the True TABR for Week 2. Throughout the next few weeks, the 2015 TABR will have a decreasing influence. That means next week’s rankings will look at 2015 less, and so on. By Week 4, last year’s numbers will play no role in the TABRankings. We’ll have a nice sample size by then.

The TABRankings opponent adjustment for Week 2:
(Raw TABR * 0.5) + (2015 TABR * 0.5) = True TABR

With now all that put together, the results for Week 2 are available below. Make sure to check back in the each week for the newest installment of the TABRankings. We will be publishing these results weekly to see how each team progresses!

The TABRankings top eight:
1Carolina Panthers, 2New England Patriots, 3Denver Broncos, 4Pittsburgh Steelers
5Arizona Cardinals, 6Minnesota Vikings, 7Kansas City Chiefs, 8Houston Texans

True TABRankings — Week 2

Rank LW Team Record Raw TABR 2015 TABR True TABR
1 1 Carolina Panthers 1-1 282.82 (11th) 724.43 (1st) 503.63
2 4 New England Patriots 2-0 409.18 (3rd) 524.75 (4th) 466.97
3 2 Denver Broncos 2-0 330.44 (9th) 593.76 (2nd) 462.10
4 5 Pittsburgh Steelers 2-0 418.55 (2nd) 440.67 (8th) 429.61
5 9 Arizona Cardinals 1-1 352.37 (7th) 506.26 (5th) 429.32
6 10 Minnesota Vikings 2-0 397.68 (4th) 384.56 (10th) 391.12
7 3 Kansas City Chiefs 1-1 179.87 (17th) 556.28 (3rd) 368.08
8 11 Houston Texans 2-0 389.01 (5th) 302.51 (11th) 345.76
9 6 Seattle Seahawks 1-1 147.52 (22nd) 471.33 (6th) 309.43
10 7 Cincinnati Bengals 1-1 156.59 (21st) 459.99 (7th) 308.29
11 8 Green Bay Packers 1-1 169.90 (19th) 426.90 (9th) 298.40
12 15 Philadelphia Eagles 2-0 436.10 (1st) 153.42 (22nd) 294.76
13 12 New York Jets 1-1 247.82 (13th) 286.84 (13th) 267.33
14 17 New York Giants 2-0 336.18 (8th) 164.48 (20th) 250.33
15 22 Baltimore Ravens 2-0 355.86 (6th) 104.37 (26th) 230.12
16 26 San Diego Chargers 1-1 324.89 (10th) 114.93 (25th) 219.91
17 13 Detroit Lions 1-1 227.26 (14th) 204.48 (17th) 215.87
18 14 Oakland Raiders 1-1 171.43 (18th) 229.69 (16th) 200.56
19 23 Los Angeles Rams 1-1 115.22 (24th) 235.10 (15th) 175.16
20 21 San Francisco 49ers 1-1 275.28 (12th) 58.21 (28th) 166.75
21 27 Atlanta Falcons 1-1 167.34 (20th) 147.13 (23rd) 157.24
22 18 Buffalo Bills 0-2 52.19 (26th) 259.62 (14th) 155.91
23 19 New Orleans Saints 0-2 104.53 (25th) 197.55 (18th) 151.04
24 16 Washington Redskins 0-2 6.02 (31st) 294.45 (12th) 150.24
25 29 Dallas Cowboys 1-1 223.55 (15th) 42.70 (29th) 133.13
26 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-1 121.73 (23rd) 115.26 (24th) 118.50
27 24 Indianapolis Colts 0-2 27.70 (28th) 173.51 (19th) 100.61
28 25 Chicago Bears 0-2 26.83 (29th) 158.05 (21st) 92.44
29 32 Tennessee Titans 1-1 184.20 (16th) -48.74 (32nd) 67.73
30 28 Miami Dolphins 0-2 30.76 (27th) 59.39 (27th) 45.08
31 30 Cleveland Browns 0-2 26.28 (30th) 28.51 (30th) 27.40
32 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 0-2 -12.69 (32nd) 13.72 (31st) 0.52

Mean: 235.42 points; Standard Deviation: 137.76 points

Let’s look at the Week 2 rankings relative to the NFL Season Predictions. Of the six AFC teams we predicted to make the postseason, the Bills (22nd) and Colts (27th) are both in hot water. However, Buffalo probably has the tougher picture ahead, simply because Indianapolis rests in the lowly AFC South. Find a way to get ahead of the Texans, and it’s time to go back to the postseason. Of the six NFC teams we predicted to make the postseason, the Falcons (21st) and Cowboys (25th) have the lowest ranking. However, both teams earned road wins to avoid the 0-2 start, so we feel like the expected improvements are still likely in their respective future.

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