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Sep 14

NFL 2016 TABRankings

WEEK 1: PANTHERS KEEP TOP SPOT DESPITE LOSING TO BRONCOS (AGAIN)
Moving on, we must note that one game doesn’t mean everything, as the sample size is just too small. Therefore, these rankings will feature some TABR from 2015 and some TABR from 2016. The 2016 totals from the above formula will be called the Raw TABR. Additionally, there will be the 2015 TABR. The two parts combine to create the True TABR for Week 1. Throughout the next few weeks, the 2015 TABR will have a decreasing influence. That means next week’s rankings will look at 2015 less, and so on. By Week 4, last year’s numbers will play no role in the TABRankings. We’ll have a nice sample size by then.

The TABRankings opponent adjustment for Week 1:
(Raw TABR * 0.25) + (2015 TABR * 0.75) = True TABR

With now all that put together, the results for Week 1 are available below. Make sure to check back in the each week for the newest installment of the TABRankings. We will be publishing these results weekly to see how each team progresses!

The TABRankings top eight:
1Carolina Panthers, 2Denver Broncos, 3Kansas City Chiefs, 4New England Patriots
5Pittsburgh Steelers, 6Seattle Seahawks, 7Cincinnati Bengals, 8Green Bay Packers

True TABRankings — Week 1

Rank LY Team Record Raw TABR 2015 TABR True TABR
1 1 Carolina Panthers 0-1 136.25 (18th) 724.43 (1st) 577.39
2 2 Denver Broncos 1-0 267.46 (16th) 593.76 (2nd) 512.19
3 3 Kansas City Chiefs 1-0 309.05 (13th) 556.28 (3rd) 494.47
4 4 New England Patriots 1-0 325.00 (11th) 524.75 (4th) 474.81
5 8 Pittsburgh Steelers 1-0 423.68 (3rd) 440.67 (8th) 436.42
6 6 Seattle Seahawks 1-0 316.74 (12th) 471.33 (6th) 432.68
7 7 Cincinnati Bengals 1-0 308.88 (14th) 459.99 (7th) 422.21
8 9 Green Bay Packers 1-0 383.72 (4th) 426.90 (9th) 416.11
9 5 Arizona Cardinals 0-1 90.71 (21st) 506.26 (5th) 402.37
10 10 Minnesota Vikings 1-0 340.97 (10th) 384.56 (10th) 373.66
11 11 Houston Texans 1-0 353.37 (8th) 302.51 (11th) 315.23
12 13 New York Jets 0-1 106.83 (20th) 286.84 (13th) 241.84
13 17 Detroit Lions 1-0 353.18 (9th) 204.48 (17th) 241.66
14 16 Oakland Raiders 1-0 273.04 (15th) 229.69 (16th) 240.53
15 22 Philadelphia Eagles 1-0 440.50 (2nd) 153.42 (22nd) 225.19
16 12 Washington Redskins 0-1 0.34 (30th) 294.45 (12th) 220.93
17 20 New York Giants 1-0 355.14 (7th) 164.48 (20th) 212.15
18 14 Buffalo Bills 0-1 47.50 (27th) 259.62 (14th) 206.59
19 18 New Orleans Saints 0-1 130.92 (19th) 197.55 (18th) 180.89
20 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-0 377.06 (5th) 115.26 (24th) 170.71
21 28 San Francisco 49ers 1-0 500.96 (1st) 58.21 (28th) 168.90
22 26 Baltimore Ravens 1-0 359.48 (6th) 104.37 (26th) 168.15
23 15 Los Angeles Rams 0-1 -72.28 (32nd) 235.10 (15th) 158.26
24 19 Indianapolis Colts 0-1 55.96 (26th) 173.51 (19th) 144.12
25 21 Chicago Bears 0-1 61.59 (25th) 158.05 (21st) 133.94
26 25 San Diego Chargers 0-1 143.03 (17th) 114.93 (25th) 121.96
27 23 Atlanta Falcons 0-1 27.43 (28th) 147.13 (23rd) 117.21
28 27 Miami Dolphins 0-1 85.65 (22nd) 59.39 (27th) 65.96
29 29 Dallas Cowboys 0-1 61.84 (24th) 42.70 (29th) 47.49
30 30 Cleveland Browns 0-1 -20.16 (31st) 28.51 (30th) 16.34
31 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 0-1 17.11 (29th) 13.72 (31st) 14.57
32 32 Tennessee Titans 0-1 74.42 (23rd) -48.74 (32nd) -17.95

Mean: 248.03 points; Standard Deviation: 161.39 points

The Panthers lost Super Bowl 50 to the Broncos, succumbing in disappointing fashion after a dominant 15-1 season. That sentiment continued as Carolina lost again to Denver, this time in Week 1 with first-time starter Trevor Siemian getting the Broncos’ nod at quarterback. And yet, the Panthers keep the top spot. That’s exclusively due to the 75 percent weight from the 2015 postseason rankings. However, with this loss, Carolina’s days atop the league are very likely numbered as the 2016 numbers becoming progressively more valuable.

Carolina’s stagnant placement set the tone for a Week 1 TABR that adheres that one cannot overreact to just one game in a new season. We still need to see a lot more before we knew how good each team really is. As a result, there are very few big movers in this week’s rankings. Dominant wins by the Eagles and 49ers allow each one to move up seven spots. Meanwhile, a pathetic loss by the Rams drop them down eight spots. The other 29 teams maintain a generally similar standing to their 2015 form — for now.

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