«

Sep 14

NFL 2016 TABRankings

WEEK 15: PACKERS’ RISE CONTINUES DOWN THE STRETCH
Stop if you’ve heard this already, but the Packers are starting to peak at the best time possible. Whether or not that actually leads to anything relevant to the playoffs remains to be seen, but recent rise by Aaron Rodgers and crew is certainly tangible. Look further than the team’s movement in the TABRankings during its four-game winning streak. After starting ranked 25th with a 4-6 record through Week 11, they moved to 21st to 20th to 12th to seventh in the span of just four weeks. Once on the very low end of the “below average” tier in the NFL, Green Bay now rests at or near the top of the “not quite Super Bowl contenders” tier. Not bad for a quarter season’s work.

If anything, this runs beat illustrates how jumbled the middle two-thirds of these rankings are throughout much of 2016. Look at it this way: Weeks 10-13 featured the top six combination of Patriots-Cowboys-Raiders-Chiefs-Falcons-Seahawks, while Weeks 14-15 only replaced the ‘Hawks with the Steelers. During that same time, bottom six combination of Bears-Rams-Jets-Jaguars-49ers-Browns remained totally in tact. That makes spots seven through 26 quite the beehive. Green Bay worked its way up from bottom to top in a four-week span that included just ONE win against a team currently ranked in the Top 20. That plus-10 turnover margin over the last two games sure helps, for starters, but it’s more about the content of a league rather then sheer dominance from the Pack. Right now, the seventh-ranked Packers hold a 124.29-point advantage over the 26th-ranked Philadelphia Eagles (re: the team they beat to start this streak), which is only moderately better than Philly’s 108.27-point advantage over the 27th-ranked Chicago Bears. Only one spot separates the fairly below average teams with the truly bad ones.

To find out where all the teams stand, check out this week’s rankings!

The TABRankings opponent adjustment:
[(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR] * X
NOTE: The multiple X will be determined as the variable that fits the equation: (1/6) * TABR IQR = X * Adjustment IQR.
For this week, the multiple was determined to be 0.6.

The TABRankings top eight:
1New England Patriots, 2Dallas Cowboys, 3Oakland Raiders, 4Atlanta Falcons
5Kansas City Chiefs, 6Pittsburgh Steelers, 7Green Bay Packers, 8Seattle Seahawks

True TABRankings — Week 15

Rank LW Team Record Raw TABR Adjustment True TABR
1 1 New England Patriots 12-2 464.69 (1st) -27.47 (31st) 437.22
2 3 Dallas Cowboys 12-2 423.39 (2nd) -11.53 (25th) 411.86
3 2 Oakland Raiders 11-3 399.40 (3rd) 12.01 (6th) 411.41
4 5 Atlanta Falcons 9-5 382.56 (4th) -0.62 (20th) 381.94
5 4 Kansas City Chiefs 10-4 374.57 (5th) 5.51 (12th) 380.08
6 6 Pittsburgh Steelers 9-5 347.72 (6th) 5.56 (11th) 353.28
7 12 Green Bay Packers 8-6 306.50 (9th) 0.89 (17th) 307.39
8 13 Seattle Seahawks 9-4-1 321.50 (7th) -17.68 (29th) 303.82
9 9 Baltimore Ravens 8-6 315.74 (8th) -14.88 (28th) 300.86
10 14 New York Giants 10-4 301.14 (10th) -2.32 (22nd) 298.82
11 7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-6 276.92 (12th) 9.37 (9th) 286.29
12 10 Denver Broncos 8-6 259.53 (17th) 14.82 (5th) 274.35
13 8 Minnesota Vikings 7-7 269.27 (14th) -1.89 (21st) 267.38
14 11 Washington Redskins 7-6-1 248.39 (18th) 11.92 (7th) 260.31
15 16 Tennessee Titans 8-6 271.05 (13th) -10.85 (24th) 260.20
16 17 Buffalo Bills 7-7 266.01 (15th) -13.61 (27th) 252.40
17 20 Miami Dolphins 9-5 283.59 (11th) -32.69 (32nd) 250.90
18 15 Detroit Lions 9-5 265.19 (16th) -24.52 (30th) 240.67
19 26 Indianapolis Colts 7-7 224.02 (19th) -8.19 (23rd) 215.83
20 25 Carolina Panthers 6-8 208.24 (21st) 5.27 (13th) 213.51
21 18 Houston Texans 8-6 208.34 (20th) 2.46 (15th) 210.80
22 23 New Orleans Saints 6-8 195.71 (23rd) 8.44 (10th) 204.15
23 22 San Diego Chargers 5-9 175.58 (25th) 23.09 (2nd) 198.67
24 21 Cincinnati Bengals 5-8-1 193.21 (24th) -0.48 (18th) 192.73
25 19 Arizona Cardinals 5-8-1 200.28 (22nd) -12.07 (26th) 188.21
26 24 Philadelphia Eagles 5-9 166.58 (26th) 16.52 (4th) 183.10
27 27 Chicago Bears 3-11 71.67 (27th) 3.16 (16th) 74.83
28 28 Los Angeles Rams 4-10 28.45 (28th) 11.44 (8th) 39.89
29 29 Jacksonville Jaguars 2-12 -5.67 (29th) 17.86 (3rd) 12.19
30 31 San Francisco 49ers 1-13 -6.36 (30th) 4.67 (14th) -1.69
31 30 New York Jets 4-10 -15.74 (31st) -0.52 (19th) -16.26
32 32 Cleveland Browns 0-14 -110.76 (32nd) 24.70 (1st) -86.06

Mean: 228.41 points; Standard Deviation: 130.75 points

Here’s just note that the Packers-Eagles differential is smaller than one standard deviation, so that’s as much separating the two teams as 19 spots in the rankings would normally suggest. This is certainly a strange 2016, a year which has seen 25 teams own a losing record at some point, compared only two (re: Patriots and Broncos) who have maintained a winning record from Games 1-14.

Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: