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Sep 14

NFL 2016 TABRankings

WEEK 14: HAWKS-PACK OUTCOME CREATES HUGE RISE AND HUGE FALL
For the first time in the Russell Wilson era, the Seattle Seahawks lost a game by more than 10 points. However, Seattle went for broke in the process by also suffering its first blowout loss since a 22-point defeat against Cincinnati on Halloween Eve 2011. Wilson threw five interceptions, much of which stemmed from his worst extended stretch of play as a professional quarterback. All in all, this 38-10 drubbing at the hands of the Packers led to two major changes in the TABRankings, something which is quite rare this late in the season.

Seattle dropped eight spots in the rankings, while Green Bay gained eight. Just last week, Seattle held a 15-rank advantage over Green Bay, enough to act as the de facto “Upset of the Pick” for the Pick’em competition. Now, the Packers are actually a spot ahead of the Seahawks. Talk about a quick 180! The problem for Seattle is that while a rare blowout loss isn’t a huge problem in itself, it is part of an aggregate of disappointing that sprinkle Seattle’s road schedule so far in 2016. This is definitely the weakest Seahawks team of the past five seasons (re: 2012-16). Meanwhile, Green Bay no longer seems to be a massive disappointment, finally turning on the playoff jets.

Besides this huge change, the cluttered mess occupying the league’s second tier continues to lead to some interesting dynamics. For example, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (seventh) are suddenly a Top 8 team. This is just in time for primetime showdown against the Dallas Cowboys, who saw their 11-game win streak come to an end. Strangely enough, the victorious New York Giants (14th) stood still in the rankings. This definitely veers from the eye test, which equates the win over Dallas to be a big statement. Giants will host the Lions (15th, dropped three spots despite a win) in the TABR Jilted Bowl in the other very important NFC showdown. Somehow, that will only count for one point in the Pick’em competition.

To find out where all the teams stand, check out this week’s rankings!

The TABRankings opponent adjustment:
[(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR] * X
NOTE: The multiple X will be determined as the variable that fits the equation: (1/6) * TABR IQR = X * Adjustment IQR.
For this week, the multiple was determined to be 0.6.

The TABRankings top eight:
1New England Patriots, 2Oakland Raiders, 3Dallas Cowboys, 4Kansas City Chiefs
5Atlanta Falcons, 6Pittsburgh Steelers, 7Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8Minnesota Vikings

True TABRankings — Week 14

Rank LW Team Record Raw TABR Adjustment True TABR
1 3 New England Patriots 11-2 452.29 (1st) -32.95 (32nd) 419.34
2 1 Oakland Raiders 10-3 392.38 (3rd) 14.95 (5th) 407.33
3 2 Dallas Cowboys 11-2 403.36 (2nd) -11.28 (26th) 392.08
4 4 Kansas City Chiefs 10-3 379.69 (4th) 1.87 (15th) 381.56
5 6 Atlanta Falcons 8-5 366.44 (5th) 13.43 (8th) 379.87
6 7 Pittsburgh Steelers 8-5 331.94 (6th) 3.49 (13th) 335.43
7 11 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-5 318.73 (7th) 1.46 (17th) 320.19
8 9 Minnesota Vikings 7-6 316.65 (8th) -0.46 (19th) 316.19
9 10 Baltimore Ravens 7-6 309.33 (9th) -16.17 (28th) 293.16
10 8 Denver Broncos 8-5 289.92 (12th) 2.72 (14th) 292.64
11 13 Washington Redskins 7-5-1 277.17 (15th) 14.74 (6th) 291.91
12 20 Green Bay Packers 7-6 281.76 (13th) 7.86 (11th) 289.62
13 5 Seattle Seahawks 8-4-1 294.42 (10th) -11.66 (27th) 282.76
14 14 New York Giants 9-4 277.81 (14th) -1.81 (20th) 276.00
15 12 Detroit Lions 9-4 293.43 (11th) -24.82 (31st) 268.61
16 17 Tennessee Titans 7-6 277.03 (16th) -27.64 (29th) 249.39
17 15 Buffalo Bills 6-7 244.92 (17th) -0.46 (18th) 244.46
18 23 Houston Texans 7-6 198.76 (21st) 15.42 (4th) 214.18
19 18 Arizona Cardinals 5-7-1 222.52 (19th) -10.06 (25th) 212.46
20 21 Miami Dolphins 8-5 232.19 (18th) -22.10 (30th) 210.09
21 25 Cincinnati Bengals 5-7-1 209.74 (20th) -7.97 (24th) 201.77
22 16 San Diego Chargers 5-8 181.51 (22nd) 13.76 (7th) 195.27
23 19 New Orleans Saints 5-8 180.13 (23rd) 10.67 (9th) 190.80
24 22 Philadelphia Eagles 5-8 170.97 (26th) 16.31 (3rd) 187.28
25 26 Carolina Panthers 5-8 174.76 (25th) 9.68 (10th) 184.44
26 24 Indianapolis Colts 6-7 175.22 (24th) -7.19 (22nd) 168.03
27 27 Chicago Bears 3-10 95.99 (27th) 1.48 (16th) 97.47
28 28 Los Angeles Rams 4-9 52.81 (28th) 4.96 (12th) 57.77
29 30 Jacksonville Jaguars 2-11 -9.69 (31st) 21.66 (2nd) 11.97
30 29 New York Jets 4-9 15.30 (29th) -7.64 (23rd) 7.66
31 31 San Francisco 49ers 1-12 1.79 (30th) -2.65 (21st) -0.86
32 32 Cleveland Browns 0-13 -105.27 (32nd) 23.49 (1st) -81.78

Mean: 228.03 points; Standard Deviation: 126.33 points

It would be remiss not to mention that the New England Patriots reclaim the top spot in the rankings. This is still the gold standard franchise, even though the Seahawks arguably had the stronger winning formula from 2012 to 2015. They should see some challenge from an AFC playoff field that definitely looks stronger than it did a few months ago. Not only are the Oakland Raiders (second) and Kansas City Chiefs (fourth) continuing to hold strong, but Pittsburgh Steelers (sixth) and Baltimore Ravens (ninth) continue to pick up steam. Monday night’s battle New England and Baltimore was a bit of a strange affair, due to special teams fumbles by the Patriots, but a postseason rematch would be well invited by this publication.

Note that this makes three different top-ranked teams in three weeks, and now New England heads on the road to face the 10th-ranked Denver Broncos. Could there be another atop the rankings come next week?

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