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Sep 14

NFL 2016 TABRankings

WEEK 13: RAIDERS TOP RANKINGS LEADING UP TO AFC WEST SHOWDOWN
Roughly midway through the third quarter, the Oakland Raiders were trailing at home by 15 points to a Buffalo Bills in huge need of a win. By the first minute of the fourth quarter, the Raiders earned the lead and were well on their way to their sixth consecutive victory. It also brings Oakland to a 10-2 record, continuing what is arguably the notable team-based headline of the 2016 season. Oakland’s is certainly quite notable for many reasons. On the plus side, the Raiders have persevered through countless scheduling-based obstacles, including a 5-0 record on the road with all kickoffs at 10am PST. On the down side, the Raiders have yet to lead by more than 17 points. Only one Super Bowl team (out of 30 playoff teams in the sample size) failed to win a game by at least 18 points.

In someways, this is a team that defying the odds, but the bigger picture still seems to say that this team’s first foray in the postseason in 14 years may end sooner than expected unless Oakland makes a big statement over its final four regular season games. For now, the Raiders can be content knowing they’ve made yet another positive forward. The Week 13 win over Buffalo was the team’s sixth quality win at the current juncture, and it was enough to move Oakland into the top spot of the TABRankings heading into a Thursday Night Football showdown against the fourth-ranked Kansas City Chiefs. A win in Kansas City would more or less seal up a first-down bye for the Raiders.

To find out where the other 31 teams stand, check out this week’s rankings!

The TABRankings opponent adjustment:
[(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR] * X
NOTE: The multiple X will be determined as the variable that fits the equation: (1/6) * TABR IQR = X * Adjustment IQR.
For this week, the multiple was determined to be 0.5.

The TABRankings top eight:
1Oakland Raiders, 2Dallas Cowboys, 3New England Patriots, 4Kansas City Chiefs
5Seattle Seahawks, 6Atlanta Falcons, 7Pittsburgh Steelers, 8Denver Broncos

True TABRankings — Week 13

Rank LW Team Record Raw TABR Adjustment True TABR
1 2 Oakland Raiders 10-2 419.98 (3rd) 5.30 (14th) 425.28
2 1 Dallas Cowboys 11-1 437.70 (2nd) -18.16 (28th) 419.86
3 3 New England Patriots 10-2 448.24 (1st) -30.79 (32nd) 417.45
4 5 Kansas City Chiefs 9-3 375.29 (4th) -4.89 (21st) 370.40
5 6 Seattle Seahawks 8-3-1 365.52 (5th) -15.05 (26th) 350.47
6 4 Atlanta Falcons 7-5 323.88 (8th) 21.10 (1st) 344.98
7 9 Pittsburgh Steelers 7-5 333.68 (6th) 2.17 (16th) 335.85
8 8 Denver Broncos 8-4 319.81 (9th) -0.18 (18th) 319.63
9 7 Minnesota Vikings 6-6 309.06 (10th) 4.23 (15th) 313.29
10 16 Baltimore Ravens 7-5 328.51 (7th) -24.41 (31st) 302.10
11 13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-5 280.85 (12th) 6.32 (13th) 287.17
12 17 Detroit Lions 8-4 296.98 (11th) -18.71 (29th) 278.27
13 10 Washington Redskins 6-5-1 254.55 (14th) 15.70 (6th) 270.25
14 11 New York Giants 8-4 261.96 (13th) -8.55 (24th) 253.41
15 12 Buffalo Bills 6-6 253.61 (15th) -1.05 (19th) 252.56
16 14 San Diego Chargers 5-7 224.55 (18th) 14.44 (7th) 238.99
17 20 Tennessee Titans 6-6 251.13 (16th) -20.47 (30th) 230.66
18 23 Arizona Cardinals 5-6-1 237.39 (17th) -12.39 (25th) 225.00
19 15 New Orleans Saints 5-7 212.45 (21st) 7.77 (11th) 220.22
20 21 Green Bay Packers 6-6 217.55 (20th) 1.81 (17th) 219.36
21 18 Miami Dolphins 7-5 219.44 (19th) -15.65 (27th) 203.79
22 19 Philadelphia Eagles 5-7 188.02 (23rd) 9.39 (9th) 197.41
23 22 Houston Texans 6-6 178.80 (24th) 16.84 (4th) 195.64
24 26 Indianapolis Colts 6-6 200.20 (22nd) -8.33 (23rd) 191.87
25 25 Cincinnati Bengals 4-7-1 176.78 (25th) 8.62 (10th) 185.40
26 24 Carolina Panthers 4-8 133.45 (26th) 16.18 (5th) 149.63
27 28 Chicago Bears 3-9 96.35 (27th) -5.88 (22nd) 90.47
28 27 Los Angeles Rams 4-8 89.03 (28th) -1.57 (20th) 87.46
29 29 New York Jets 3-9 10.11 (29th) 7.46 (12th) 17.57
30 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 2-10 -5.70 (30th) 17.22 (3rd) 11.52
31 30 San Francisco 49ers 1-11 -8.10 (31st) 10.92 (8th) 2.82
32 32 Cleveland Browns 0-12 -99.27 (32nd) 20.39 (2nd) -78.88

Mean: 229.06 points; Standard Deviation: 125.62 points

Besides the Raiders, the biggest winners this week are the Baltimore Ravens (10th). Their 32-point beatdown of the Miami Dolphins (21st) is the type of win that the Raiders need, ironically. With the win, Baltimore moves into the Top 10. Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions (12th) are finally starting to look like a true playoff win. It certainly helps that the defense played arguably its best game, limited the powerhouse New Orleans Saints (19th) offense without a passing touchdown at home.

Clearly, with a Top-4 showdown ready to place at Arrowhead Stadium this Thursday, the Week 14 rankings could possibly be another change at top. Will the Raiders stay atop the rankings, or will the Dallas Cowboys (second) or New England Patriots (third) take their place?

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