«

Sep 14

NFL 2016 TABRankings

WEEK 12: AFC EAST TAKES A TUMBLE IN JUMBLED RANKINGS
Through Thanksgiving Weekend, the TABRankings are an absolute mess in the middle half of the league. Nothing can better illustrate this than the AFC East’s status in Week 12. The division went 3-1, yet saw all three winning teams drop in the rankings. Thanks to New England’s five-point win against the lowly New York Jets, the Patriots (third) dropped below the Oakland Raiders (second). Thanks to Buffalo’s seven-point win against the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars, the Bills (12th) dropped two spots. Finally, thanks to Miami’s seven-point win against the bottom-dwelling San Francisco 49ers, the Dolphins (18th) moved down three spots in the rankings. Ironically, the Jets stayed 29th in this week’s rankings despite the home loss to the Patriots. What a mess!

To examine all of the hairy details, check out this week’s rankings!

The TABRankings opponent adjustment:
[(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR] * X
NOTE: The multiple X will be determined as the variable that fits the equation: (1/6) * TABR IQR = X * Adjustment IQR.
For this week, the multiple was determined to be 0.55.

The TABRankings top eight:
1Dallas Cowboys, 2Oakland Raiders, 3New England Patriots, 4Atlanta Falcons
5Kansas City Chiefs, 6Seattle Seahawks, 7Minnesota Vikings, 8Denver Broncos

True TABRankings — Week 12

Rank LW Team Record Raw TABR Adjustment True TABR
1 1 Dallas Cowboys 10-1 441.69 (1st) -27.51 (32nd) 414.18
2 3 Oakland Raiders 9-2 398.18 (3rd) 6.54 (13th) 404.72
3 2 New England Patriots 9-2 424.83 (2nd) -27.20 (31st) 397.53
4 6 Atlanta Falcons 7-4 342.08 (5th) 16.68 (3rd) 358.76
5 5 Kansas City Chiefs 8-3 363.81 (4th) -10.22 (24th) 353.59
6 4 Seattle Seahawks 7-3-1 341.30 (6th) -4.03 (20th) 337.27
7 7 Minnesota Vikings 6-5 315.04 (7th) -5.52 (21st) 309.52
8 8 Denver Broncos 7-4 295.62 (9th) 11.57 (10th) 307.19
9 11 Pittsburgh Steelers 6-5 299.09 (8th) 0.06 (18th) 299.14
10 9 Washington Redskins 6-4-1 278.71 (13th) 14.21 (7th) 292.92
11 12 New York Giants 8-3 293.92 (10th) -15.04 (26th) 278.88
12 10 Buffalo Bills 6-5 284.89 (11th) -12.79 (25th) 272.10
13 18 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-5 265.68 (14th) 6.26 (14th) 271.94
14 20 San Diego Chargers 5-6 244.70 (19th) 14.31 (6th) 259.01
15 19 New Orleans Saints 5-6 248.43 (18th) 10.36 (11th) 258.79
16 17 Baltimore Ravens 6-5 279.91 (12th) -26.01 (29th) 253.90
17 16 Detroit Lions 7-4 265.33 (15th) -20.09 (27th) 245.24
18 15 Miami Dolphins 7-4 264.00 (16th) -22.59 (28th) 241.41
19 13 Philadelphia Eagles 5-6 220.01 (20th) 11.78 (9th) 231.79
20 22 Tennessee Titans 6-6 250.68 (17th) -27.18 (30th) 223.50
21 25 Green Bay Packers 5-6 202.98 (22nd) 5.58 (15th) 208.56
22 14 Houston Texans 6-5 192.59 (23rd) 13.12 (8th) 205.71
23 21 Arizona Cardinals 4-6-1 205.55 (21st) -9.97 (23rd) 195.58
24 24 Carolina Panthers 4-7 159.88 (24th) 14.53 (5th) 174.41
25 23 Cincinnati Bengals 3-7-1 137.97 (26th) 15.26 (4th) 153.23
26 26 Indianapolis Colts 5-6 147.67 (25th) -3.91 (19th) 143.76
27 27 Los Angeles Rams 4-7 119.12 (27th) -0.81 (22nd) 118.31
28 28 Chicago Bears 2-9 68.96 (28th) 4.15 (17th) 73.11
29 29 New York Jets 3-8 56.13 (29th) 5.35 (16th) 61.48
30 30 San Francisco 49ers 1-10 3.02 (30th) 22.32 (1st) 25.34
31 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 2-9 1.87 (31st) 9.27 (12th) 11.14
32 32 Cleveland Browns 0-12 -99.13 (32nd) 22.18 (2nd) -76.95

Mean: 228.28 points; Standard Deviation: 118.26 points

There are 19 teams with an above-average point total through Week 12. However, there are eight of those teams within one half standard deviation of the mean. Additionally, five below-average teams are within one half standard deviation of the mean. This should help to illustrate the jumbled mess in the NFL this season, especially among the middle-pack teams. For example, the Houston Texans (22nd) are closer to the sixth-ranked Seattle Seahawks than the 28th-ranked Chicago Bears. Again, what a mess!

Who knows how things change in Week 13, but we expect it to stay a mess.

Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: