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Sep 14

NFL 2016 TABRankings

WEEK 11: COWBOYS FINALLY TAKE TOP SPOT HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING
Just last week, we lamented how several small factors combined to knock the Cowboys down a spot in the TABRankings despite owning the league’s best record. This time around, most of those factors pulled back in Dallas’ favor. Most notably, the opponent adjustment got weaker in Week 11, allowing the Dallas Cowboys to finally take the top spot in the TABRankings. How long will they last in this spot? It may determine on the Thanksgiving showdown against Washington, who is threatening for a Top 8 spot.

Did they get to the Top 8? Find that out below while checking out this week’s rankings!

The TABRankings opponent adjustment:
[(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR] * X
NOTE: The multiple X will be determined as the variable that fits the equation: (1/6) * TABR IQR = X * Adjustment IQR.
For this week, the multiple was determined to be 0.55.

The TABRankings top eight:
1Dallas Cowboys, 2New England Patriots, 3Oakland Raiders, 4Seattle Seahawks
5Kansas City Chiefs, 6Atlanta Falcons, 7Minnesota Vikings, 8Denver Broncos

True TABRankings — Week 11

Rank LW Team Record Raw TABR Adjustment True TABR
1 3 Dallas Cowboys 9-1 439.71 (1st) -32.83 (32nd) 406.88
2 1 New England Patriots 8-2 417.75 (2nd) -15.19 (27th) 402.56
3 2 Oakland Raiders 8-2 390.31 (4th) 3.17 (16th) 393.48
4 4 Seattle Seahawks 7-2-1 394.88 (3rd) -6.17 (21st) 388.71
5 5 Kansas City Chiefs 7-3 360.32 (5th) -19.29 (28th) 341.03
6 6 Atlanta Falcons 6-4 321.80 (8th) 14.69 (7th) 336.49
7 7 Minnesota Vikings 6-4 335.18 (6th) -6.46 (22nd) 328.72
8 8 Denver Broncos 7-3 325.82 (7th) -0.35 (19th) 325.47
9 10 Washington Redskins 6-3-1 307.19 (9th) 1.78 (18th) 308.97
10 12 Buffalo Bills 5-5 279.63 (10th) 3.21 (15th) 282.84
11 14 Pittsburgh Steelers 5-5 271.60 (11th) 7.29 (9th) 278.89
12 11 New York Giants 7-3 271.54 (12th) 3.62 (12th) 275.16
13 9 Philadelphia Eagles 5-5 253.00 (15th) 16.29 (4th) 269.29
14 15 Houston Texans 6-4 225.25 (19th) 15.03 (6th) 240.27
15 20 Miami Dolphins 6-4 250.23 (16th) -11.84 (24th) 238.39
16 17 Detroit Lions 6-4 255.67 (14th) -20.55 (29th) 235.12
17 22 Baltimore Ravens 5-5 257.91 (13th) -23.73 (31st) 234.18
18 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-5 227.05 (18th) 3.49 (13th) 230.54
19 13 New Orleans Saints 4-6 210.66 (21st) 17.52 (3rd) 228.18
20 16 San Diego Chargers 4-6 202.90 (22nd) 15.96 (5th) 218.86
21 18 Arizona Cardinals 4-5-1 230.65 (17th) -13.13 (26th) 217.52
22 19 Tennessee Titans 5-6 221.05 (20th) -21.06 (30th) 199.99
23 24 Cincinnati Bengals 3-6-1 165.07 (26th) 13.46 (8th) 178.53
24 25 Carolina Panthers 4-6 171.59 (24th) 4.43 (11th) 176.02
25 21 Green Bay Packers 4-6 167.02 (25th) 6.56 (10th) 173.58
26 26 Indianapolis Colts 5-5 179.38 (23rd) -12.83 (25th) 166.55
27 27 Los Angeles Rams 4-6 150.50 (27th) -7.99 (23rd) 142.51
28 28 Chicago Bears 2-8 82.87 (28th) 3.22 (14th) 86.09
29 29 New York Jets 3-7 65.67 (29th) -1.29 (20th) 64.38
30 30 San Francisco 49ers 1-9 11.18 (30th) 24.74 (1st) 35.92
31 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 2-8 8.12 (31st) 2.17 (17th) 10.29
32 32 Cleveland Browns 0-11 -81.01 (32nd) 18.67 (2nd) -62.34

Mean: 229.78 points; Standard Deviation: 115.27 points

Besides the Cowboys’ rise to the top spot, much of the rest seems to be the same. The same Top 8 remain in place this week, although Washington moved one step closer to reaching that group. Meanwhile, the middle of the pack is tightly packed with teams at or close to .500 on the season. In total, 17 teams own somewhere between a 4-6 and 6-4 record. What a mess!

Week 12 will definitely test if the Cowboys are worth that top spot, but establishing separation (e.g.: 9th-ranked Washington and 22nd-ranked Tennessee are only within one standard deviation) may take longer than one more week.

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