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Sep 14

NFL 2016 TABRankings

WEEK 10: PERFECT STORM KNOCKS DOWN COWBOYS DESPITE BIG WIN
By all means, Sunday’s win in Pittsburgh should be looked at as a major win for the Dallas Cowboys. They defeated the Steelers with Ben Roethlisberger at his best form. Couple that win with New England’s home loss to the Seattle Seahawks, and the Cowboys own the best record at 8-1. However, a perfect form of situation caused the Cowboys to lose points and drop one rank in the TABRankings.

There are several little things that factored into this result: (1) the high-scoring affair in Pittsburgh actually hurt the Cowboys’ Pythagorean win percentage, (2) the Green Bay Packers loss to fall to 4-5 hurt the Cowboys’ quality win percentage, (3) the Cowboys finished with a minus-1 turnover margin at Pittsburgh, (4) Roethlisberger’s 125+ passer rating negatively affected the Cowboys’ Real Quarterback Rating Differential, and (5) the opponent adjustment grew stronger to highlight the Cowboys’ weak schedule thus far.

This is an example of how the numbers can sometimes get messy. And perhaps, more specifically, this is an example of how the numbers tell a much different story than the on-the-field narrative. This is a Cowboys team that won a game that matched up poorly for them, and now they just got a heartfelt endorsement for Dak Prescott from their long-time (now former) starting quarterback in Tony Romo. This team should be shooting up, but the TABRankings have different plans for now. Check out this week’s rankings.

The TABRankings opponent adjustment:
[(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR] * X
NOTE: The multiple X will be determined as the variable that fits the equation: (1/6) * TABR IQR = X * Adjustment IQR.
For this week, the multiple was determined to be 0.85.

The TABRankings top eight:
1New England Patriots, 2Oakland Raiders, 3Dallas Cowboys, 4Seattle Seahawks
5Kansas City Chiefs, 6Atlanta Falcons, 7Minnesota Vikings, 8Denver Broncos

True TABRankings — Week 10

Rank LW Team Record Raw TABR Adjustment True TABR
1 1 New England Patriots 7-2 409.31 (2nd) -8.09 (23rd) 401.22
2 3 Oakland Raiders 7-2 378.52 (4th) 12.37 (10th) 390.89
3 2 Dallas Cowboys 8-1 428.20 (1st) -52.88 (31st) 375.32
4 7 Seattle Seahawks 6-2-1 362.47 (5th) -9.19 (24th) 353.28
5 4 Kansas City Chiefs 7-2 389.92 (3rd) -37.02 (29th) 352.90
6 5 Atlanta Falcons 6-4 322.26 (6th) 20.96 (7th) 343.22
7 6 Minnesota Vikings 5-4 318.90 (7th) -5.82 (22nd) 313.08
8 8 Denver Broncos 7-3 312.47 (8th) -0.47 (18th) 312.00
9 9 Philadelphia Eagles 5-4 288.14 (9th) 3.90 (15th) 292.04
10 16 Washington Redskins 5-3-1 280.20 (10th) 6.16 (14th) 286.36
11 11 New York Giants 6-3 253.18 (14th) 28.53 (4th) 281.71
12 13 Buffalo Bills 4-5 271.29 (11th) 9.60 (12th) 280.89
13 10 New Orleans Saints 4-5 241.93 (17th) 31.83 (2nd) 273.76
14 15 Pittsburgh Steelers 4-5 228.77 (19th) 43.04 (1st) 271.81
15 17 Houston Texans 6-3 249.35 (15th) 10.29 (11th) 259.64
16 14 San Diego Chargers 4-6 210.29 (21st) 24.85 (5th) 235.14
17 19 Detroit Lions 5-4 229.42 (18th) -5.53 (21st) 223.89
18 18 Arizona Cardinals 4-4-1 256.26 (13th) -38.55 (30th) 217.71
19 23 Tennessee Titans 5-5 247.40 (16th) -32.78 (28th) 214.62
20 22 Miami Dolphins 5-4 218.93 (20th) -14.69 (26th) 204.24
21 12 Green Bay Packers 4-5 204.05 (22nd) 0.09 (17th) 204.14
22 20 Baltimore Ravens 5-4 262.61 (12th) -67.01 (32nd) 195.60
23 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-5 197.66 (23rd) -3.53 (20th) 194.13
24 21 Cincinnati Bengals 3-5-1 179.89 (24th) 6.25 (13th) 186.14
25 27 Carolina Panthers 3-6 142.85 (27th) 15.41 (8th) 158.26
26 25 Indianapolis Colts 4-5 150.89 (26th) -10.05 (25th) 140.84
27 28 Los Angeles Rams 4-5 158.67 (25th) -24.82 (27th) 133.85
28 24 Chicago Bears 2-7 104.24 (28th) 1.23 (16th) 105.45
29 29 New York Jets 3-7 58.97 (29th) -2.04 (19th) 56.93
30 31 San Francisco 49ers 1-8 25.54 (30th) 24.10 (6th) 49.64
31 30 Jacksonville Jaguars 2-7 6.90 (31st) 12.92 (9th) 19.82
32 32 Cleveland Browns 0-10 -63.43 (32nd) 29.49 (3rd) -33.94

Mean: 227.96 points; Standard Deviation: 109.27 points

The increased opponent adjustment had its fair share of impact this week. For example, the Kansas City Chiefs (fourth to fifth) and Baltimore Ravens (20th to 22nd) were two teams to drop in the rankings despite winning. Meanwhile, the Steelers (15th to 14th) moved up despite their loss to the aforementioned Cowboys.

However, the biggest loser of this week is the Green Bay Packers, who dropped nine spots in the rankings after losing handily in Tennessee. They seem to be in a legitimate tailspin, and next they face a Washington that rose that rose a week-best six spots. Now looks to be bad time for the Packers, but anything can happen from one week to the next.

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