«

Sep 14

NFL 2016 TABRankings

WEEK 9: RAIDERS WIN BIG, RISE IN THE RANKINGS HEADING INTO BYE
Ladies and gentlemen, it seems like now is finally the time to buy into the Oakland Raiders. While having to scrape for wins throughout much of the season, doing so allow the Raiders to start 5-0 on the road with every single win coming during a 10am PST kickoff. Just getting through that slate unscathed is a top-level feat in itself. However, Sunday night gave Oakland its first marquee win of the season, the Raiders controlled the Denver Broncos throughout en route to a 10-point primetime win at home against a quality opponent. It’s now nine games in, and there’s little left to question in Oakland’s 7-2 start. And right on cue, the TABRankings show the Raiders to be the third-best team.

They are the clear winners of the week, but how do the rest shake out? Check out this week’s rankings.

The TABRankings opponent adjustment:
[(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR] * X
NOTE: The multiple X will be determined as the variable that fits the equation: (1/6) * TABR IQR = X * Adjustment IQR.
For this week, the multiple was determined to be 0.6.

The TABRankings top eight:
1New England Patriots, 2Dallas Cowboys, 3Oakland Raiders, 4Kansas City Chiefs
5Atlanta Falcons, 6Minnesota Vikings, 7Seattle Seahawks, 8Denver Broncos

True TABRankings — Week 9

Rank LW Team Record Raw TABR Adjustment True TABR
1 1 New England Patriots 7-1 468.38 (1st) -19.11 (26th) 449.27
2 2 Dallas Cowboys 7-1 446.39 (2nd) -37.15 (32nd) 409.24
3 8 Oakland Raiders 7-2 377.42 (4th) 5.47 (15th) 382.89
4 4 Kansas City Chiefs 6-2 393.91 (3rd) -19.59 (27th) 374.32
5 5 Atlanta Falcons 6-3 350.91 (6th) 8.61 (10th) 359.52
6 3 Minnesota Vikings 5-3 356.58 (5th) -10.30 (24th) 346.28
7 11 Seattle Seahawks 5-2-1 332.15 (7th) -22.93 (30th) 309.22
8 6 Denver Broncos 6-3 306.19 (8th) -1.15 (18th) 305.04
9 7 Philadelphia Eagles 4-4 278.96 (9th) 1.58 (16th) 280.54
10 16 New Orleans Saints 4-4 258.11 (12th) 18.40 (5th) 276.51
11 18 New York Giants 5-3 243.89 (15th) 28.96 (1st) 272.85
12 12 Green Bay Packers 4-4 263.14 (11th) 8.40 (11th) 271.54
13 10 Buffalo Bills 4-5 264.35 (10th) 6.41 (13th) 270.76
14 14 San Diego Chargers 4-5 239.44 (16th) 20.03 (3rd) 259.47
15 9 Pittsburgh Steelers 4-4 235.36 (18th) 18.71 (4th) 254.07
16 15 Washington Redskins 4-3-1 253.84 (14th) -1.94 (19th) 251.90
17 13 Houston Texans 5-3 219.62 (20th) 30.21 (2nd) 249.83
18 17 Arizona Cardinals 3-4-1 253.85 (13th) -21.82 (29th) 232.03
19 23 Detroit Lions 5-4 224.55 (19th) -4.96 (22nd) 219.59
20 24 Baltimore Ravens 4-4 236.09 (17th) -31.27 (31st) 204.82
21 19 Cincinnati Bengals 3-4-1 192.76 (22nd) 6.65 (12th) 199.41
22 20 Miami Dolphins 4-4 198.87 (21st) -10.15 (23rd) 198.72
23 22 Tennessee Titans 4-5 192.08 (23rd) -20.99 (28th) 171.09
24 25 Chicago Bears 2-6 144.42 (25th) 10.09 (8th) 154.51
25 27 Indianapolis Colts 4-5 153.56 (24th) -3.64 (21st) 149.92
26 21 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-5 143.15 (26th) 5.76 (14th) 148.91
27 28 Carolina Panthers 3-5 132.93 (27th) -2.00 (20th) 130.93
28 26 Los Angeles Rams 3-5 129.92 (28th) -17.29 (25th) 112.63
29 29 New York Jets 3-6 63.58 (29th) -0.41 (17th) 63.17
30 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 2-6 28.57 (30th) 12.24 (7th) 40.81
31 30 San Francisco 49ers 1-7 11.53 (31st) 9.30 (9th) 20.83
32 32 Cleveland Browns 0-9 -47.05 (32nd) 17.63 (6th) -29.42

Mean: 229.41 points; Standard Deviation: 113.87 points

Looking at the rest, perhaps the biggest surprise is that the Minnesota Vikings (sixth) are still hanging near the top. This is so in large part because their turnover margin (plus-12) still shines bright. Sure, this spells poorly for when turnover regression comes into play down the road, this year or next (re: it already has this year in part, as the Vikings started 5-0 on a plus-11 margin, only to go 0-3 since on a plus-1 margin). Minnesota has still yet to lose a turnover battle this season. Also, note that the Vikings don’t have a negative number in our rankings grid. That is only shared by the Dallas Cowboys (second), Oakland Raiders (third) and Buffalo Bills (13th).

While the top nine seems pretty settled, with only the Seattle Seahawks (seventh) joining the bunch, the New Orleans Saints (10th) and New York Giants (11th) seemed to shake up the middle-of-the-pack rankings. Strong opponent adjustments boost an otherwise above-average pair of Raw TABR totals. The biggest loser in all of this is the Green Bay Packers (12th), who are eighth in the NFC’s pecking order. They need to start playing like the team we thought would at least cruise through the regular season.

What’s really of note on the AFC side is that two divisions now represent nobody among the conference’s six best team. The Pittsburgh Steelers (15th) and Houston Texans (17th) are the seventh- and eighth-best team in the conference, according to this week’s rankings. At least for the Steelers sake, they can once again prove their worth with a quality win next week.

Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: