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Feb 10

NFL 2015 TABRankings: Postseason

Note that with this being the postseason, we have to adjust the formula to properly reflect the change of tenor and pace. We also need to reward postseason teams for getting as far as they did. Thus, the formula for the 2015 Postseason TABRankings looks like so:

The TABRankings postseason formula:
(Regular Win Pct x 2)+(Postseason Advancement Points)+(Regular Pyth Pct)+(Post Pyth x 0.2)+(Overall Div Pct x 0.5)+(Overall Qual Pct x 0.5)+(Overall 3rd/4th Down Diff x 1.75)+(Regular TO Margin x 4)+(Post TO Margin x 5)-(Regular FK Diff x 0.8)-(Post FK Diff)+(Regular Sack Diff x 0.8)+(Post Sack Diff)+(Reg Time Ahead Avg x 1.25)+(Post Time Ahead x 0.1)+(Reg Time Ahead Big Avg x 1.5)+(Post Time Ahead Big x 0.2)+(Weighted Real Quarterback Rating Diff x 1.25)+(Regular Relative Pts Avg x 1.8)

Only two parts of this formula stray from our normal process used in the regular season formula. First, the “postseason advancement points” attaches a point value to each team that advances to a certain level. Advancing to Wild Card Weekend earns 25 points. Advancing to the Divisional Round earns 50 points. Advancing to the Conference Championship earns 75 points. Advancing to Super Bowl XLIX earns 100 points. Winning the Super Bowl earns an additional 50 points. Second, the “weighted Real Quarterback Rating” involves putting twice the power into postseason passing numbers, so this will have some extra leg work to do to get the totals.

The 2015 totals from the above formula will be called the Raw TABR. Add in the Opponent Adjustment, and this will create the True TABR from the conference championships. Check out the opponent adjustment formula below:

The TABRankings opponent adjustment formula:
[(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR] * X
NOTE: The multiple X will be determined as the variable that fits the equation: (1/6) * TABR IQR = X * Adjustment IQR.
For this week, the multiple was determined to be 1 (which means no adjustment is this area).

With now all that put together, the results from the postseason are available below. Each postseason team will have the postseason record separate from regular season record. We also compared these rankings to the regular season rankings.

The TABRankings top eight:
1Carolina Panthers, 2Denver Broncos, 3Kansas City Chiefs, 4New England Patriots
5Arizona Cardinals, 6Seattle Seahawks, 7Cincinnati Bengals, 8Pittsburgh Steelers

True TABRankings — Postseason

Rank RS Team Record Raw TABR Adjustment True TABR
1 1 Carolina Panthers 15-1 + 2-1 743.54 (1st) -19.11 (25th) 724.43
2 8 Denver Broncos 12-4 + 3-0 533.76 (3rd) 60.00 (1st) 593.76
3 4 Kansas City Chiefs 11-5 + 1-1 533.92 (2nd) 22.36 (12th) 556.28
4 6 New England Patriots 12-4 + 1-1 525.10 (4th) -0.35 (22nd) 524.75
5 2 Arizona Cardinals 13-3 + 1-1 492.84 (5th) 13.42 (16th) 506.26
6 5 Seattle Seahawks 10-6 + 1-1 430.35 (7th) 40.98 (5th) 471.33
7 3 Cincinnati Bengals 12-4 + 0-1 453.00 (6th) 6.99 (17th) 459.99
8 7 Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6 + 1-1 402.07 (8th) 38.60 (6th) 440.67
9 10 Green Bay Packers 10-6 + 1-1 381.61 (9th) 45.29 (3rd) 426.90
10 9 Minnesota Vikings 11-5 + 0-1 366.30 (10th) 18.26 (13th) 384.56
11 11 Houston Texans 9-7 + 0-1 297.89 (13th) 4.62 (19th) 302.51
12 14 Washington Redskins 9-7 + 0-1 319.56 (12th) -25.11 (29th) 294.45
13 12 New York Jets 10-6 347.08 (11th) -60.24 (32nd) 286.84
14 13 Buffalo Bills 8-8 258.61 (14th) 1.01 (20th) 259.62
15 15 St. Louis Rams 7-9 218.84 (15th) 16.26 (15th) 235.10
16 16 Oakland Raiders 7-9 196.96 (17th) 32.73 (11th) 229.69
17 17 Detroit Lions 7-9 170.42 (20th) 34.06 (9th) 204.48
18 18 New Orleans Saints 7-9 205.96 (16th) -8.41 (23rd) 197.55
19 21 Indianapolis Colts 7-9 173.84 (19th) -0.33 (21st) 173.51
20 20 New York Giants 6-10 177.64 (18th) -13.16 (24th) 164.48
21 22 Chicago Bears 6-10 110.95 (24th) 47.10 (2nd) 158.05
22 19 Philadelphia Eagles 7-9 159.55 (22nd) 6.13 (18th) 153.42
23 23 Atlanta Falcons 8-8 167.80 (21st) -20.67 (27th) 147.13
24 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-10 135.74 (23rd) -20.48 (26th) 115.26
25 26 San Diego Chargers 4-12 79.09 (27th) 35.84 (7th) 114.93
26 25 Baltimore Ravens 5-11 86.86 (26th) 17.51 (14th) 104.37
27 28 Miami Dolphins 6-10 88.42 (25th) -29.03 (30th) 59.39
28 27 San Francisco 49ers 5-11 24.53 (29th) 33.68 (10th) 58.21
29 29 Dallas Cowboys 4-12 8.38 (30th) 34.32 (8th) 42.70
30 30 Cleveland Browns 3-13 -13.12 (31st) 41.63 (4th) 28.51
31 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11 46.21 (28th) -32.49 (31st) 13.72
32 32 Tennessee Titans 3-13 -26.45 (32nd) -22.29 (28th) -48.74

Mean: 262.00 points; Standard Deviation: 194.56 points

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