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Dec 23

NFL 2014 TABRankings: Week 16

Usually, we spend our Tuesdays providing the Pick’em results for the week’s NFL match-ups. However, we’re waiting on NFL.com to post the Week 16 predictions from the GameDay First panelists. Therefore, we bumped up the newest TABRankings to today.

In the Week 16 rankings, the newest star on the scene is the Dallas Cowboys. After a 42-7 dismantling of the Indianapolis Colts, Dallas clinched in the NFC East and shot all the way up to seventh in the rankings. Finally, the boys from Big D are playing like a legitimate playoff contender. The team might not yet be at the level of the Packers or Seahawks, but they at least are starting to round into form.

Meanwhile, with the Cowboys in the top eight, we now see five NFC teams on the top shelf. Does this mean that the NFC is now the superior conference to the AFC? Through eight weeks, the AFC averaged a 14.5 ranking and the NFC averaged an 18.5 ranking. Now, the AFC averages 15.625 ranking and the NFC averages a 17.375 ranking. It doesn’t seem like there was a serious power shift, although the NFC clearly has a deeper conference when it comes to serious contenders. If Drew Stanton comes back from injury and can play well for Arizona come playoff time, we could see the better playoff games come from the NFC.

Now, to the rankings. The formula for the 2014 TABRankings looks like so:

The TABRankings formula:
(Win Pct x 2)+(Pyth Pct)+(Div Pct x 0.5)+(Qual Pct x 0.5)+(3rd/4th Down Diff x 1.75)+(TO Margin x 4)-(FK Diff x 0.75)+(Sack Diff x 0.75)+(Time Ahead Avg x 1.2)+(Time Ahead Big Avg x 1.5)+(Real Quarterback Rating Diff x 1.25)+(Relative Pts Avg x 1.8)

The 2014 totals from the above formula will be called the Raw TABR. Add in the Opponent Adjustment, and this will create the True TABR for Week 16. Check out the opponent adjustment formula below:

The TABRankings opponent adjustment formula:
[(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR] * X
NOTE: The multiple X will be determined as the variable that fits the equation: (1/6) * TABR IQR = X * Adjustment IQR.
For this week, the multiple was determined to be 1.15.

With now all that put together, the results for Week 16 are available below. Make sure to check back in the each week for the newest installment of the TABRankings. We will be publishing these results weekly to see how each team progresses!

The TABRankings top eight:
1New England Patriots, 2Denver Broncos, 3Green Bay Packers, 4Seattle Seahawks
5Indianapolis Colts, 6Arizona Cardinals, 7Dallas Cowboys, 8Detroit Lions

True TABRankings — Week 16

Rank LW Team Record Raw TABR Adjustment True TABR
1 1 New England Patriots 12-3 481.32 (1st) -5.14 (22nd) 476.18
2 2 Denver Broncos 11-4 430.71 (3rd) 25.56 (5th) 456.27
3 3 Green Bay Packers 11-4 465.90 (2nd) -29.28 (28th) 436.62
4 5 Seattle Seahawks 11-4 410.78 (4th) 20.41 (7th) 431.19
5 6 Indianapolis Colts 10-5 338.24 (8th) 10.01 (9th) 380.63
6 4 Arizona Cardinals 11-4 341.45 (7th) 25.30 (6th) 366.75
7 13 Dallas Cowboys 11-4 358.31 (5th) -31.58 (30th) 326.73
8 8 Detroit Lions 11-4 353.84 (6th) -31.15 (29th) 322.71
9 12 Cincinnati Bengals 10-4-1 311.23 (11th) 2.90 (15th) 314.13
10 7 Buffalo Bills 8-7 307.68 (12th) 0.89 (16th) 308.57
11 15 Houston Texans 8-7 333.88 (9th) -36.67 (31st) 297.21
12 10 Miami Dolphins 8-7 255.48 (15th) 26.12 (4th) 281.60
13 11 Philadelphia Eagles 9-6 280.42 (14th) -2.89 (19th) 277.53
14 9 Baltimore Ravens 9-6 294.63 (13th) -18.64 (25th) 275.99
15 16 Pittsburgh Steelers 10-5 327.48 (10th) -51.50 (32nd) 275.98
16 14 Kansas City Chiefs 8-7 242.21 (17th) 9.17 (10th) 251.38
17 17 San Diego Chargers 9-6 238.55 (18th) 7.06 (11th) 245.61
18 19 Atlanta Falcons 6-9 250.59 (16th) -19.75 (26th) 230.84
19 18 San Francisco 49ers 7-8 209.43 (21st) 6.90 (12th) 216.33
20 23 New York Giants 6-9 213.29 (20th) 0.64 (17th) 213.93
21 21 Cleveland Browns 7-8 220.51 (19th) -28.13 (27th) 192.38
22 24 Carolina Panthers 6-8-1 176.41 (22nd) -3.60 (21st) 172.81
23 20 St. Louis Rams 6-9 172.47 (23rd) -2.63 (18th) 169.84
24 22 New Orleans Saints 6-9 154.37 (24th) 11.75 (8th) 166.12
25 25 Minnesota Vikings 6-9 131.98 (25th) 4.98 (14th) 136.96
26 26 Chicago Bears 5-10 78.08 (26th) 37.73 (3rd) 115.81
27 28 Oakland Raiders 3-12 -11.61 (28th) 52.19 (1st) 40.58
28 27 New York Jets 3-12 -20.30 (31st) 49.70 (2nd) 29.40
29 31 Washington Redskins 4-11 21.98 (27th) -15.69 (24th) 6.29
30 29 Jacksonville Jaguars 3-12 -17.12 (29th) 5.41 (13th) -11.71
31 32 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-13 -28.47 (32nd) -2.90 (20th) -31.37
32 30 Tennessee Titans 2-13 -18.75 (30th) -15.54 (23rd) -34.29

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