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Dec 31

NFL 2013 TABRankings: Regular Season

Week 17 more or less went as expected, as the top 14 suffered only four losses. Those losses were to other teams in the top 14. Bottom part of the Week 16 rankings didn’t have as much order, but the bottom five teams each lost to end their respective regular seasons. With all that happened, the question that remains is how the postseason field will look, according to the rankings.

Remember, the formula for the 2013 TABRankings looks like so:

The TABRankings formula:
(Win Pct x 2)+(Pyth Pct)+(Div Pct x 0.5)+(Qual Pct x 0.5)+(3rd/4th Down Diff x 1.75)+(TO Margin x 3)-(FK Diff x 0.75)+(Sack Diff x 0.75)+(Time Ahead Avg x 1.2)+(Time Ahead Big Avg x 1.5)+(Real Quarterback Rating Diff x 1.25)+(Relative Pts Avg x 1.8)

Now that we have our RAW TABR set up, we need to add in schedule adjustments to get our Total TABR. Remember, the adjustments are made from totals relative to the league average. They account for the strength of schedule for each team via the rankings.

The TABRankings opponent adjustment for Week 17:
(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR
NOTE: The multiple will be determined to be a number X near to the variable that fits the equation:
(1/6) * TABR IQR = Y * Adjustment IQR. For this week, the multiple was determined to be 1.05.

With now all that put together, the results for Week 17 are available below. Teams who made the postseason are highlighted in blue. As you can see, the rankings seem to be quite fond of the postseason picture. Note that “LY” refers to the team’s ranking from the 2012 postseason. This’ll show the progress from one season to another, and it’s for some teams.

The TABRankings top eight:
1Seattle Seahawks, 2Denver Broncos, 3Carolina Panthers, 4San Francisco 49ers
5New Orleans Saints, 6Indianapolis Colts, 7Kansas City Chiefs, 8Cincinnati Bengals

True TABRankings — Week 17

Rank LY Team Record Raw TABR Adjustment True TABR
1 4 Seattle Seahawks 13-3 491.69 (1st) -8.70 (20th) 482.99
2 5 Denver Broncos 13-3 472.84 (2nd) -27.50 (25th) 445.34
3 16 Carolina Panthers 12-4 446.19 (3rd) -7.26 (19th) 438.93
4 2 San Francisco 49ers 12-4 422.19 (4th) 7.56 (13th) 429.75
5 14 New Orleans Saints 11-5 397.31 (5th) 19.71 (8th) 417.02
6 22 Indianapolis Colts 11-5 377.17 (6th) -9.33 (21st) 362.64
7 32 Kansas City Chiefs 11-5 376.41 (7th) -33.87 (28th) 342.54
8 15 Cincinnati Bengals 11-5 366.74 (8th) -27.56 (26th) 339.18
9 1 New England Patriots 12-4 360.67 (9th) -23.49 (24th) 337.18
10 18 Arizona Cardinals 10-6 266.33 (12th) 48.21 (4th) 314.54
11 30 Philadelphia Eagles 10-6 348.16 (10th) -41.21 (31st) 306.95
12 24 San Diego Chargers 9-7 298.27 (11th) -4.01 (15th) 294.26
13 13 St. Louis Rams 7-9 218.86 (17th) 49.62 (6th) 268.48
14 17 Dallas Cowboys 8-8 240.74 (14th) -11.09 (22nd) 229.65
15 9 Chicago Bears 8-8 246.80 (13th) -31.13 (27th) 215.67
16 27 Tennessee Titans 7-9 206.14 (19th) 0.18 (14th) 206.32
17 23 Miami Dolphins 8-8 187.17 (21st) 13.81 (10th) 200.98
18 20 Pittsburgh Steelers 8-8 230.70 (15th) -36.90 (30th) 193.80
19 28 Buffalo Bills 6-10 192.72 (20th) -5.75 (16th) 186.97
20 7 Green Bay Packers 8-7-1 221.98 (16th) -36.30 (29th) 185.68
21 21 Detroit Lions 7-9 212.58 (18th) -42.67 (32nd) 169.91
22 19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-12 105.61 (24th) 62.80 (1st) 168.41
23 3 Baltimore Ravens 8-8 184.44 (22nd) -18.15 (23rd) 166.29
24 10 New York Giants 7-9 94.56 (25th) 35.77 (6th) 130.33
25 26 New York Jets 8-8 126.10 (23rd) -6.56 (18th) 119.54
26 8 Atlanta Falcons 4-12 61.05 (28th) 48.47 (3rd) 109.52
27 12 Minnesota Vikings 5-10-1 79.84 (26th) 11.89 (11th) 91.73
28 25 Cleveland Browns 4-12 62.51 (27th) -6.46 (17th) 56.05
29 29 Oakland Raiders 4-12 36.79 (29th) 17.37 (9th) 54.16
30 11 Washington Redskins 3-13 31.26 (30th) 7.69 (12th) 38.95
31 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 4-12 12.11 (31st) 22.59 (7th) 33.70
32 6 Houston Texans 2-14 -18.75 (32nd) 42.05 (5th) 23.30

NOTE: Postseason teams are highlighted in blue.

According to the rankings, only one team doesn’t belong in the postseason. Most would agree with this sentiment, especially the standings themselves. If you take away the divisions, the Arizona Cardinals would have a top six record in the conference. However, they are out while the 8-7-1 Green Bay Packers win the NFC North. At least the Packers have Aaron Rodgers back in the starting lineup, which automatically makes them better than the 20th-best team in the league. The Cardinals, who are 46.06 points better than the Rams and at least 84.89 points better than the rest of the non-playoff teams, should be upset they didn’t make the playoffs.

So which teams are true contenders for the Super Bowl? There’s not a definitive way to illustrate that with these rankings, but we can try. Note that the mean True TABR for the 32 teams estimates to 229.91 points. Also note that the population standard deviation of the True TABR estimates to 143.03 points. Thus, any team with a True TABR of at least 372.94 points will be one whole standard deviation away from the mean total. I personally think this makes a neat cutoff for these rankings.

Therefore, I believe we have five true contenders to win Super Bowl XLVIII: the Seattle Seahawks, the Denver Broncos, the Carolina Panthers, the San Francisco 49ers and the New Orleans Saints. Expect these teams to make a rise in the postseason.

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