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Feb 25

Super Bowl Super Study, Part 9: Blowout Record

Over two weeks, we’re conducting a super study to assess Super Bowl teams. With this painstakingly-detailed look at playoff team precedence, a few key outliers can illustrate which future playoff teams are likely to win the Super Bowl and which future playoff teams are likely to come up short. This study includes 13 statistical factors that impact a playoff team’s championship viability.

Today, the study focuses on the blowout games each Super Bowl team won and lost. The chart below examines each Super Bowl team’s blowout record, which we determined to be games to be determined by at least 20 points.

Table 9: Blowout Losses

SB Winner Record SB Loser Record
I 66 Packers 3-0 I 66 Chiefs 4-1
II 67 Packers 3-0 II 67 Raiders 6-0
III 68 Jets 3-0 III 68 Colts 6-0
IV 69 Chiefs 5-0 IV 69 Vikings 5-0
V 70 Colts 2-1 V 70 Cowboys 3-2
VI 71 Cowboys 4-0 VI 71 Dolphins 4-1
VII 72 Dolphins 4-0 VII 72 Redskins 1-0
VIII 73 Dolphins 5-0 VIII 73 Vikings 4-1
IX 74 Steelers 4-0 IX 74 Vikings 3-0
X 75 Steelers 6-0 X 75 Cowboys 2-0
XI 76 Raiders 2-1 XI 76 Vikings 2-0
XII 77 Cowboys 2-0 XII 77 Broncos 2-0
XIII 78 Steelers 4-0 XIII 78 Cowboys 6-0
XIV 79 Steelers 6-2 XIV 79 Rams 3-2
XV 80 Raiders 0-0 XV 80 Eagles 4-0
XVI 81 49ers 2-0 XVI 81 Bengals 4-0
XVII 82 Redskins 1-0 XVII 82 Dolphins 1-0
XVIII 83 Raiders 1-0 XVIII 83 Redskins 5-0
XIX 84 49ers 5-0 XIX 84 Dolphins 5-0
XX 85 Bears 5-0 XX 85 Patriots 0-0
XXI 86 Giants 3-0 XXI 86 Broncos 2-2
XXII 87 Redskins 2-0 XXII 87 Broncos 3-1
XXIII 88 49ers 2-1 XXIII 88 Bengals 3-1
XXIV 89 49ers 2-0 XXIV 89 Broncos 3-0
XXV 90 Giants 3-0 XXV 90 Bills 4-1
XXVI 91 Redskins 7-0 XXVI 91 Bills 2-1
XXVII 92 Cowboys 4-1 XXVII 92 Bills 4-2
XXVIII 93 Cowboys 5-0 XXVIII 93 Bills 3-1
XXIX 94 49ers 7-1 XXIX 94 Chargers 1-1
XXX 95 Cowboys 3-0 XXX 95 Steelers 0-1
XXXI 96 Packers 8-0 XXXI 96 Patriots 3-1
XXXII 97 Broncos 6-0 XXXII 97 Packers 2-0
XXXIII 98 Broncos 4-0 XXXIII 98 Falcons 4-1
XXXIV 99 Rams 9-0 XXXIV 99 Titans 1-1
XXXV 00 Ravens 5-0 XXXV 00 Giants 3-0
XXXVI 01 Patriots 3-1 XXXVI 01 Rams 6-0
XXXVII 02 Buccaneers 3-0 XXXVII 02 Raiders 5-0
XXXVIII 03 Patriots 2-1 XXXVIII 03 Panthers 1-1
XXXIX 04 Patriots 3-0 XXXIX 04 Eagles 5-2
XL 05 Steelers 3-0 XL 05 Seahawks 4-0
XLI 06 Colts 1-1 XLI 06 Bears 5-0
XLII 07 Giants 1-2 XLII 07 Patriots 10-0
XLIII 08 Steelers 4-0 XLIII 08 Cardinals 4-4
XLIV 09 Saints 5-0 XLIV 09 Colts 3-1
XLV 10 Packers 4-0 XLV 10 Steelers 4-0
XLVI 11 Giants 0-1 XLVI 11 Patriots 3-0
XLVII 12 Ravens 2-1 XLVII 12 49ers 4-2
XLVIII 13 Seahawks 6-0 XLVIII 13 Broncos 6-0
XLIX 14 Patriots 7-1 XLIX 14 Seahawks 3-0

Red flag: No blowout wins and/or three or more blowout losses
Amber flag: One blowout win and/or two blowout losses (if three or fewer blowout wins)

This factor saw just one team receive a red flag: the 2008 Cardinals. Perhaps that speak to what ailed the Cardinals the most; they were bad when they were in a good rhythm. Besides that, there was no trend to this factor. Also note that only two Super Bowl champions received a flag, both of which were amber. That makes this factor even more crucial.

Now let’s compile a list of Super Bowl teams that earned red or amber flags in the 13 factors for playoff team precedence. This will allows us to see how many Super Bowl teams compiled flags and determine how many flags a normal Super Bowl team should own. We’ll then determine the most unlikely Super Bowl combatants. First, here’s the overall Super Bowl champions flag count:

  • Five red flags, one amber flag: 2007 Giants, 2011 Giants
  • Two red flags: 1988 49ers, 1999 Rams, 2010 Packers
  • One red flag, two amber flags: 2012 Ravens
  • One red flag, one amber flag: 1981 49ers, 2001 Patriots, 2006 Colts
  • One red flag: 1970 Colts, 1972 Dolphins, 1993 Cowboys
  • Two amber flags: 1979 Steelers, 1987 Redskins, 2000 Ravens, 2009 Saints
  • One amber flag: 1967 Packers, 1969 Chiefs, 1974 Steelers, 1980 Raiders, 1995 Cowboys, 1997 Broncos, 2005 Steelers

Next, here’s the overall Super Bowl losers flag count:

  • Four red flags: 2008 Cardinals
  • Two red flags, three amber flags: 1979 Rams
  • Two red flags, one amber flag: 1981 Bengals
  • Two red flags: 1998 Falcons
  • One red flag, two amber flags: 2003 Panthers
  • One red flag, one amber flag: 1988 Bengals, 1996 Patriots, 2000 Giants
  • One red flag: 1980 Eagles, 2002 Raiders, 2005 Seahawks
  • Four amber flags: 1970 Cowboys
  • Three amber flags: 1986 Broncos
  • Two amber flags: 1985 Patriots, 1992 Bills, 2004 Eagles, 2012 49ers
  • One amber flag: 1969 Vikings, 1971 Dolphins, 1972 Redskins, 1982 Dolphins, 1984 Dolphins, 1987 Broncos, 1989 Broncos, 2006 Bears, 2009 Colts, 2010 Steelers, 2011 Patriots

Truly, three teams are separating themselves from the pack as unlikely champions: the 2007 Giants, 2008 Cardinals and 2011 Giants. We’ll who else emerges. The most interesting team right now is the 1970 Cowboys (no red flags and four amber flags).

Up next: Turnover Margin per Game

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