NFL 2016 Pick’em

WEEK 5: TOUGH TIMES CONTINUE FOR MOST — BUT NOT US
Since our 2016 NFL Season Predictions did so well, except for the Games of the Week, we felt good about emerging from Week 5 as the competition’s top expert as long as we could correctly predict the top four match-ups of the week. Look at those four match-ups, the most intriguing game featured Atlanta’s elite offense against Denver’s elite defense. Both units were arguably the best in the league heading into Sunday, making up a juicy match-up to say the least. However, with quarterback Trevor Siemian out due to the injury, the Denver offense lost its advantage over the Atlanta defense. We don’t expect Paxton Lynch to keep up the Falcons, even if the Broncos will limit the scoring. As a result, we go against the grain to pick the Atlanta grabbing a monster win on the road.

In the other match-ups, we feel quite confident to take at least two of three. The Vikings defense owns a distinct advantage over the Texans offense, which makes Minnesota an easy choice to win. The Cowboys have yet to face a team as good or balanced as the Bengals, so that will make a tough challenge for rookie Dak Prescott. Finally, the Rams are being outscored despite their 3-1 record, which suggests they will likely regress soon. Note that we think the Cincinnati-Dallas game is probably the toughest Game of the Week to pick. The other three should be relatively safe picks, as far as Games of the Week usually go.

As for the rest of the games go, we are in interesting pickle. There is either a major ranking disparity (25-rank differential or greater) and a close match-up (eight-rank differential or less) for all other games EXCEPT for the Chargers-Raiders. This pretty much forces us to take the Chargers for our upset of the week, even if we can’t remotely trust them to close out a win. We may have to eat a loss here.

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Games of the Week (3 points each)
(12) Houston Texans (3-1) at (1) Minnesota Vikings (4-0)
(6) Atlanta Falcons (3-1) at (3) Denver Broncos (4-0)
(16) Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) at (8) Dallas Cowboys (3-1)
(7) Buffalo Bills (2-2) at (14) Los Angeles Rams (3-1)

Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(24) Arizona Cardinals (1-3) at (20) San Francisco 49ers (1-3)
(21) San Diego Chargers (1-3) at (9) Oakland Raiders (3-1) **Upset of the Week**
(26) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) at (19) Carolina Panthers (1-3)

The Rest (1 point each)
(5) New England Patriots (3-1) at (32) Cleveland Browns (0-4) **Lock of the Week**
(4) Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) at (31) Detroit Lions (1-3)
(22) Chicago Bears (1-3) at (29) Indianapolis Colts (1-3)
(28) Tennessee Titans (1-3) at (30) Miami Dolphins (1-3)
(17) Washington Redskins (2-2) at (13) Baltimore Ravens (3-1)
(27) New York Jets (1-3) at (2) Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)
(18) New York Giants (2-2) at (10) Green Bay Packers (2-1)

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Results: Record and Points
Week 5: 9-5 and 16 points (out of 25 possible points)
Season: 52-25 and 84 points (67.53 win and 61.76 point percentage)
GotW: 3-1 this week (9-10 overall… 47.37 win percentage)
Divisional: 1-2 this week (15-9 overall… 62.5 win percentage) [includes 1-2 in GOTW]
Upsets: 4-1 overall (65 ranking points)
Locks: 5-0 overall (current streak: Seahawks, Panthers, Cowboys, Vikings, Patriots)

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Week 5: Expert Records and Points

NOTE: M = mean (average of the 30 competitors)

All said, our Falcons pick was the true winner of the week. Very few experts went with the road team in this match-up, sticking their hopes on the defending Super Bowl champions and the elite defense. This game provided yet another example that balance wins out more often than sheer defense. On the flip side, our most costly pick was the upset. Like we said earlier, it was just one we had to eat.

Week 6 provides another interesting challenge, with nine of 15 games featuring a match-up between teams within one game of each other in win-loss record. This includes expected Games of the Week involving Falcons-Seahawks and Cowboys-Packers, two showdowns between a pair of one-loss teams. We’ll need to do quite a bit of research to feel comfortable with our picks.