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Sep 08

NFL 2016 Pick’em

WEEK 4: ONE MORE GOOD WEEK CLOSES OUT FIRST-QUARTER DOMINANCE
With things looking so good for us, the only amendment we make for this week involves the Cleveland-Washington match-up. This was originally predicted to be a Browns win, based on Robert Griffin III’s return to D.C. to face the franchise that so terribly misused him. That narrative is obviously no longer in play with Cody Kessler. Although he played solid football for the most part (as we expected) last week, he does not bring the revenge factor almost single-handedly used to make that original prediction.

Before continuing, let’s remember that for one more week, the predictions focus on how the 2016 NFL Season Predictions panned out. Until the sample size from 2016 is sufficient, we need the original predictions to carry us until the TABRankings give full weight to the 2016 numbers. With only two amendments to the predictions we made before the season kicked off, we were rewarded handsomely. If we kept everything as is, we would’ve owned a 41-22 record that would co-lead the Pick’em competition. That’s why he stick with this plan for Weeks 1-4. Have no doubt that we know what we’re doing in the NFL’s first quarter of the season.

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Games of the Week (3 points each)
(7) Carolina Panthers (1-2) at (15) Atlanta Falcons (2-1)
(12) Oakland Raiders (2-1) at (9) Baltimore Ravens (3-0)
(5) Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) at (10) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)

Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(25) Indianapolis Colts (1-2) at (32) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3)
(29) Tennessee Titans (1-2) at (13) Houston Texans (2-1)
(17) Buffalo Bills (1-2) at (1) New England Patriots (3-0) **Upset of the Week**
(23) Detroit Lions (1-2) at (30) Chicago Bears (0-3)
(19) Los Angeles Rams (2-1) at (11) Arizona Cardinals (1-2)

The Rest (1 point each)
(27) Miami Dolphins (1-2) at (20) Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)
(31) Cleveland Browns (0-3) at (21) Washington Redskins (1-2) **Amended Pick**
(6) Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at (22) New York Jets (1-2)
(2) Denver Broncos (3-0) at (26) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2)
(28) New Orleans Saints (0-3) at (18) San Diego Chargers (1-2)
(14) Dallas Cowboys (2-1) at (24) San Francisco 49ers (1-2)
(16) New York Giants (2-1) at (3) Minnesota Vikings (3-0) **Lock of the Week**

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Results: Record and Points
Week 4: 10-5 and 15 points (out of 26 possible points)
Season: 43-20 and 68 points (68.25 win and 61.26 point percentage)
GotW: 1-2 this week (6-9 overall… 40 win percentage)
Divisional: 3-3 this week (14-7 overall… 66.7 win percentage) [includes 1-2 in GOTW]
Upsets: 4-0 overall (65 ranking points)
Locks: 4-0 overall (current streak: Seahawks, Panthers, Cowboys, Vikings)

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Week 4: Expert Records and Points

Rank Expert Record Rank Expert Points
1 Adam Dobrowolski, TABM 43-20 1 KC Joyner, ESPN 71
2 Mike Middlehurst-Schwartz, USAT 41-22 2 A. Dobrowolski 68
3 K. Joyner 40-23 3 M. Middlehurst-Schwartz 67
4 Jeff Ratcliffe, PFF 39-24 4 Lorenzo Reyes, USAT 66
4 L. Reyes 39-24 5 Gordon McGuinness, PFF 62
6 Matt Bowen, ESPN 38-25 6 Merril Hoge, ESPN 61
6 Chris Burke, SI 38-25 6 Kevin Seifert, ESPN 61
6 G. McGuinness 38-25 8 M. Bowen 60
6 Kurt Warner, NFLN 38-25 8 C. Burke 60
10 FiveThirtyEight Elo 37-26 8 FiveThirtyEight 60
10 Vinnie Iyer, SN 37-26 8 Steve Palazzolo, PFF 60
10 Steve Mariucci, NFLN 37-26 12 V. Iyer 58
10 S. Palazzolo 37-26 12 Nathan Jahnke, PFF 58
10 K. Seifert 37-26 12 Pete Prisco, CBSS 58
M Mean Record 36.03-26.97 12 J. Ratcliffe 58
15 Adam Caplan, ESPN 36-27 12 K. Warner 58
15 Mike Golic, ESPN 36-27 M Mean Points 57.57
15 M. Hoge 36-27 17 A. Caplan 57
15 Neil Hornsby, PFF 36-27 17 M. Golic 57
19 N. Jahnke 35-28 19 Marshall Faulk, NFLN 56
19 Tom Pelissero, USAT 35-28 20 Dan Graziano, ESPN 55
21 Nate Davis, USAT 34-29 20 N. Hornsby 55
21 M. Faulk 34-29 20 S. Mariucci 55
21 D. Graziano 34-29 23 Football Outsiders 53
22 Ron Jaworski, ESPN 34-29 23 T. Pelissero 53
22 P. Prisco 34-29 25 Seth Wickersham, ESPN 52
26 FB Outsiders 33-30 26 N. Davis 51
27 Jarrett Bell, USAT 31-32 27 J. Bell 50
28 S. Wickersham 32-31 27 Sam Monson, PFF 50
28 S. Monson 32-31 29 R. Jaworski 49
30 Mike Renner, PFF 30-33 30 M. Renner 48

NOTE: M = mean (average of the 30 competitors)

Sticking with the Bills and Jaguars made the best impact of the week, and it truly vaulted us ahead of the rest of the competition in the record standings. However, the poor Games of the Week record is costing us thus far, as seen by KC Joyner’s superior points total. Now the real fun begins. With the lead heading into Week 5, we can look ahead to week-to-week breakdowns to determine our predictions. This presents its own challenges, but we’re up to task. Just look at the previous three seasons. We have good reason to feel confident moving forward. Peeking ahead, Week 5 should have several Games of the Week, so we’ll be tested right out of the gate.

4 comments

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  1. Robert Anderson

    Adam – It would really help the pickers and give you more cred if you posted your picks before the games actually started.

    1. tabm1327

      Apologies for a busy week, but all picks in during the London kickoff!

      1. Robert Anderson

        Thanks! Really enjoy your work!

        1. tabm1327

          HOPEFULLY, it’s quicker next week and all done before the Thursday Night Football kickoff!

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