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Sep 08

NFL 2016 Pick’em

WEEK 2: STRONG RETURNS ONCE AGAIN
With Week 1 going so well, there is truly very little difference between this weekend’s expectations and what was originally expected. Therefore, there are no amendments to the original predictions. Perhaps the Baltimore-Cleveland game was closest to changing hands, as injury forced the Browns to move from Robert Griffin III to Josh McCown for the starting quarterback role. However, McCown’s lone win starting for the 2015 Browns came against the Ravens, with a strong performance (111.32 passer rating) to boot. We won’t pull the trigger of change as a result. In the end, it looks like we would’ve been wise to have switched to the Ravens. It wasn’t for a lack of drama. The Browns held a 20-0 lead, pending an extra point attempt. That attempt led to a two-point return that kickstarted Baltimore’s come-from-behind victory. As a result, we suffered one of five losses on the week. Those losses were costly, as they combined for 11 points lost.

Before continuing, let’s remember that this week’s predictions focus on how the 2016 NFL Season Predictions panned out, something which we will do until the match-ups for Week 5. Until the sample size from 2016 is sufficient, we need the original predictions to carry us at least until the TABRankings give full weight to the 2016 numbers. Note that the week-to-week analysis will progressively matter more until four weeks are in the books. Perhaps we will see an amendment or two next week.

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Games of the Week (3 points each)
(7) Cincinnati Bengals (1-0) at (5) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0)
(3) Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) at (11) Houston Texans (1-0)
(8) Green Bay Packers (1-0) at (10) Minnesota Vikings (1-0)

Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(12) New York Jets (0-1) at (18) Buffalo Bills (0-1)
(29) Dallas Cowboys (0-1) at (16) Washington Redskins (0-1)
(28) Miami Dolphins (0-1) at (4) New England Patriots (1-0)
(22) Baltimore Ravens (1-0) at (30) Cleveland Browns (0-1)
(6) Seattle Seahawks (1-0) at (23) Los Angeles Rams (0-1)

The Rest (1 point each)
(21) San Francisco 49ers (1-0) at (1) Carolina Panthers (0-1) **Lock of the Week**
(19) New Orleans Saints (0-1) at (17) New York Giants (1-0)
(32) Tennessee Titans (0-1) at (13) Detroit Lions (1-0) **Upset of the Week**
(20) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) at (9) Arizona Cardinals (0-1)
(31) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at (26) San Diego Chargers (0-1)
(27) Atlanta Falcons (0-1) at (14) Oakland Raiders (1-0)
(24) Indianapolis Colts (0-1) at (2) Denver Broncos (1-0)
(15) Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) at (25) Chicago Bears (0-1)

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Results: Record and Points
Week 2: 11-5 and 16 points (out of 27 possible points)
Season: 24-8 and 37 points (75 win and 67.27 point percentage)
GotW: 1-2 this week (3-4 overall… 42.86 win percentage)
Divisional: 4-3 this week (8-3 overall… 72.72 win percentage) [includes 1-1 in GOTW]
Upsets: 2-0 overall (32 ranking points)
Locks: 2-0 overall (current streak: Seahawks, Panthers)

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Week 2: Expert Records and Points

Rank Expert Record Rank Expert Points
1 Chris Burke, SI 24-8 1 Lorenzo Reyes, USAT 40
1 Adam Dobrowolski, TABM 24-8 2 C. Burke 39
3 Vinnie Iyer, SN 23-9 2 V. Iyer 39
3 Mike Middlehurst-Schwartz, USAT 23-9 4 KC Joyner, ESPN 38
3 Jeff Ratcliffe, PFF 23-9 5 A. Dobrowolski 37
3 L. Reyes 23-9 5 Merril Hoge, ESPN 37
7 Matt Bowen, ESPN 21-11 7 M. Middlehurst-Schwartz 36
7 Mike Golic, ESPN 21-11 8 J. Ratcliffe 35
7 M. Hoge 21-11 9 Kurt Warner, NFLN 34
7 Neil Hornsby, PFF 21-11 9 N. Hornsby 34
7 K. Joyner 21-11 9 Gordon McGuinness, PFF 34
7 Steve Mariucci, NFLN 21-11 12 M. Bowen 33
7 K. Warner 21-11 12 M. Golic 33
14 FiveThirtyEight Elo 20-12 12 Pete Prisco, CBSS 33
14 Ron Jaworski, ESPN 20-12 12 Kevin Seifert, ESPN 33
14 G. McGuinness 20-12 M Mean Points 32.37
14 P. Prisco 20-12 16 FiveThirtyEight 32
14 K. Seifert 20-12 16 Nathan Jahnke, PFF 32
M Mean Record 19.93-12.07 16 R. Jaworski 32
19 Adam Caplan, ESPN 19-13 19 S. Mariucci 31
19 Nate Davis, USAT 19-13 19 Seth Wickersham, ESPN 31
19 N. Jahnke 19-13 21 A. Caplan 30
19 Steve Palazzolo, PFF 19-13 21 N. Davis 30
23 Dan Graziano, ESPN 18-14 23 Jarrett Bell, USAT 29
23 S. Wickersham 18-14 23 Marshall Faulk, NFLN 29
25 J. Bell 17-15 23 S. Palazzolo 29
25 M. Faulk 17-15 26 Football Outsiders 28
25 FB Outsiders 17-15 26 Sam Monson, PFF 28
25 Tom Pelissero, USAT 17-15 28 D. Graziano 26
29 S. Monson 16-16 29 T. Pelissero 25
30 Mike Renner, PFF 15-17 30 M. Renner 24

NOTE: M = mean (average of the 30 competitors)

And far less than excellent showing in the Games of the Week portion through two weeks may put us into some trouble in the points standings. While standing strong atop the record standings (with two others), we dropped a few spots elsewhere. The Chiefs-Texans outcome certainly hurt us the most, as a majority of experts picking Houston earn revenge after last year’s pair of losses.

Another thing of note: because NFL Network’s Michael Irvin did not make Week 2 picks, we replaced with Sports Illustrated’s Chris Burke to maintain a 30-expert pool. Burke looks quite good through two weeks, so this may provide a stiffer challenge for us. Only Burke can match TABMathletics’ 24-8 start to this season. Will he stay as a threat, or will Week 3 and beyond provide too much of a challenge?

4 comments

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  1. Robert Anderson

    Adam – It would really help the pickers and give you more cred if you posted your picks before the games actually started.

    1. tabm1327

      Apologies for a busy week, but all picks in during the London kickoff!

      1. Robert Anderson

        Thanks! Really enjoy your work!

        1. tabm1327

          HOPEFULLY, it’s quicker next week and all done before the Thursday Night Football kickoff!

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