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Sep 08

NFL 2016 Pick’em

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS: HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE REIGNS SUPREME
Four teams remain in the 2016 NFL season. Three of these franchises rank among the best in NFL history. It could lead to a much-acclaimed Super Bowl if Green Bay wins the NFC Championship. Then again, Atlanta and its high-powered offense could steal the show. In a year which it’s hard to find a fully balanced team, the Falcons may break general postseason trends and win it all on the offense alone. Either way, the NFC participant will have to find a nine-time AFC champion in the big game. New England or Pittsburgh will become the first franchise to make nine Super Bowl appearances. According to the Four Postseason Factors, home-field advantage will hold en route to Super Bowl LI.

Packers at Falcons: Two Great Offenses and Suspect Defenses Clash
The Falcons own both the TABRankings (ATL) and playoff team precedence (ATL) advantage. Then there’s the home-field advantage that could act as the tiebreaker, but that won’t even be necessary. Even though we trust the Seahawks to play well on offense now that quarterback Russell Wilson and running back Thomas Rawls are healthy, thus giving them the team balance (ATL) advantage, the team coaching (GB) battle is a wash due to familiarity between Pete Carroll and Dan Quinn. Yes, Seattle was the pick to win the NFC back during the 2016 NFL Preview Season Predictions, but playoff predictions are always about the head-to-head match-up.

Steelers at Patriots: Struggles in Foxborough Continue for Big Ben and Crew
This match-up could provide the biggest mismatch of the postseason. Whether you look at team balance (NE) or team coaching (push) or the TABRankings (NE) or playoff team precedence (NE), you will see the Patriots outclassing the Texans.

Conference Championships (9 points each)
(7) Green Bay Packers (10-6) at (3) Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
(6) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) at (1) New England Patriots (14-2)

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Results: Record and Points
Conference Championships: 2-0 and 18 points (out of 18 possible points)
Regular Season: 170-84-2 and 290 points (66.80 win and 66.21 point percentage)
Postseason: 9-1 and 60 points (90 win and 90.91 point percentage)
Overall: 179-85-2 and 350 points (67.67 win and 69.44 point percentage)

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Conference Championships: Expert Records and Points (2 ties = 1 win + 1 loss)

Rank Expert Record Rank Expert Points
1 Adam Dobrowolski, TABM 180-86 1 A. Dobrowolski 350
2 Chris Burke, SI 177-89 2 KC Joyner, ESPN 346
3 Mike Middlehurst-Schwartz, USAT 175-91 3 Pete Prisco, CBSS 345
4 K. Joyner 174-92 4 C. Burke 343
4 Steve Palazzolo, PFF 174-92 5 M. Middlehurst-Schwartz 336
6 Kurt Warner, NFLN 173-93 5 K. Warner 336
7 Football Outsiders 172-94 7 Mike Golic, ESPN 333
7 Gordon McGuinness, PFF 172-94 8 S. Palazzolo 330
7 P. Prisco 172-94 9 FB Outsiders 329
7 Lorenzo Reyes, USAT 172-94 10 FiveThirtyEight Elo 327
11 FiveThirtyEight 171-95 11 Adam Caplan, ESPN 325
12 Jeff Ratcliffe, PFF 170-96 11 J. Ratcliffe 325
13 M. Golic 169-97 13 Vinnie Iyer, SN 323
13 V. Iyer 169-97 13 Marshall Faulk, NFLN 305
13 Steve Mariucci, NFLN 169-97 M Mean Points 307.13
M Mean Record 166.73-97.27 15 G. McGuinness 322
16 Nate Davis, USAT 168-98 16 Neil Hornsby, PFF 321
16 Kevin Seifert, ESPN 168-98 17 N. Davis 320
18 Matt Bowen, ESPN 167-99 18 K. Seifert 319
18 A. Caplan 167-99 19 S. Mariucci 318
20 Dan Graziano, ESPN 166-100 20 M. Bowen 314
20 Tom Pelissero, USAT 166-100 21 Ron Jaworski, ESPN 313
20 Seth Wickersham, ESPN 166-100 22 L. Reyes 311
23 M. Faulk 163-101 22 S. Wickersham 311
23 N. Hornsby 165-101 24 Jarrett Bell, USAT 310
23 R. Jaworski 165-101 24 D. Graziano 310
26 Merril Hoge, ESPN 164-102 26 M. Hoge 307
27 J. Bell 163-103 27 T. Pelissero 303
28 Mike Renner, PFF 159-107 28 Nathan Jahnke, PFF 301
29 Sam Monson, PFF 156-110 29 S. Monson 294
30 N. Jahnke 155-111 30 M. Renner 292

NOTE: M = mean (average of the 30 competitors)

Now there’s only Super Bowl LI left in this competition. Correctly predict that game, and TABMathletics will once again reign supreme in this Pick’em competition! Not even one expert has correctly predicted more games this season than us, according to NFL Pickwatch. This will very much come down to the wire in the points standings, so let’s see how the experts pick the Patriots-Falcons match-up.

4 comments

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  1. Robert Anderson

    Adam – It would really help the pickers and give you more cred if you posted your picks before the games actually started.

    1. tabm1327

      Apologies for a busy week, but all picks in during the London kickoff!

      1. Robert Anderson

        Thanks! Really enjoy your work!

        1. tabm1327

          HOPEFULLY, it’s quicker next week and all done before the Thursday Night Football kickoff!

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