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Sep 08

NFL 2016 Pick’em

WEEK 1: LOOKING GREAT TO START THE SEASON
This week’s predictions focus on how the 2016 NFL Season Predictions panned out, something which we will do until the match-ups for Week 5. Until the sample size from 2016 is sufficient, we need the original predictions to carry us at least until the TABRankings give full weight to the 2016 numbers. Note that the week-to-week analysis will progressively matter more until four weeks are in the books.

Through one week, it looks like the original predictions hold up well. A 13-3 record for the week could’ve been better, if not for game-sealing missed field goal by Carolina’s Graham Gano (from 50 yards) and Arizona’s Chandler Catanzaro (from 47 yards). The third loss featured the Colts blowing a last-minute lead against the Lions, but this came after Detroit blew a 21-3 lead. This loss doesn’t sting nearly as much as the other two, which ended up costing us six points that likely would’ve significantly set the tone for the field of experts.

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Games of the Week (3 points each)
(1) Carolina Panthers at (2) Denver Broncos
(7) Cincinnati Bengals at (13) New York Jets
(4) New England Patriots at (5) Arizona Cardinals
(8) Pittsburgh Steelers at (12) Washington Redskins

Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(24) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (23) Atlanta Falcons
(25) San Diego Chargers at (3) Kansas City Chiefs
(20) New York Giants at (29) Dallas Cowboys
(15) Los Angeles Rams at (28) San Francisco 49ers **Upset of the Week**

The Rest (1 point each)
(10) Minnesota Vikings at (32) Tennessee Titans
(30) Cleveland Browns at (22) Philadelphia Eagles
(16) Oakland Raiders at (18) New Orleans Saints
(14) Buffalo Bills at (26) Baltimore Ravens
(21) Chicago Bears at (11) Houston Texans
(9) Green Bay Packers at (31) Jacksonville Jaguars
(27) Miami Dolphins at (6) Seattle Seahawks **Lock of the Week**
(17) Detroit Lions at (19) Indianapolis Colts

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Results: Record and Points
Week 1: 13-3 and 21 points (out of 28 possible points)
Season: 13-3 and 21 points (81.25 win and 75 point percentage)
GotW: 2-2 this week (2-2 overall… 50 win percentage)
Divisional: 4-0 this week (4-0 overall… 100 win percentage) [includes 0-0 in GOTW]
Upsets: 1-0 overall (13 ranking points)
Locks: 1-0 overall (current streak: Seahawks)

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Week 1: Expert Records and Points

Rank Expert Record Rank Expert Points
1 Adam Dobrowolski, TABM 13-3 1 A. Dobrowolski 21
1 Mike Middlehurst-Schwartz, USAT 13-3 2 Vinnie Iyer, SN 19
3 Jeff Ratcliffe, PFF 12-4 2 M. Middlehurst-Schwartz 19
3 Lorenzo Reyes, USAT 12-4 2 Pete Prisco, CBSS 19
5 Merril Hoge, ESPN 11-5 2 L. Reyes 18
5 Neil Hornsby, PFF 11-5 6 M. Hoge 18
5 V. Iyer 11-5 6 KC Joyner, ESPN 18
5 Steve Mariucci, NFLN 11-5 6 Gordon McGuinness, PFF 18
5 G. McGuinness 11-5 6 J. Ratcliffe 18
5 P. Prisco 11-5 6 Kurt Warner, NFLN 18
5 K. Warner 11-5 11 N. Hornsby 17
M Mean Record 10.1-5.9 12 FiveThirtyEight Elo 16
12 Matt Bowen, ESPN 10-6 12 Football Outsiders 16
12 Adam Caplan, ESPN 10-6 12 S. Mariucci 16
12 FiveThirtyEight 10-6 12 Kevin Seifert, ESPN 16
12 Mike Golic, ESPN 10-6 12 Seth Wickersham, ESPN 16
12 K. Joyner 10-6 M Mean Points 15.87
12 Steve Palazzolo, PFF 10-6 17 Jarrett Bell, USAT 15
12 Tom Pelissero, USAT 10-6 17 Marshall Faulk, NFLN 15
12 K. Seifert 10-6 17 Nathan Jahnke, PFF 15
20 J. Bell 9-7 17 S. Palazzolo 15
20 Nate Davis, USAT 9-7 21 M. Bowen 14
20 M. Faulk 9-7 21 A. Caplan 14
20 FB Outsiders 9-7 21 M. Golic 14
20 Dan Graziano, ESPN 9-7 21 Ron Jaworski, ESPN 14
20 N. Jahnke 9-7 21 Sam Monson, PFF 14
20 R. Jaworski 9-7 21 T. Pelissero 14
20 S. Wickersham 9-7 27 N. Davis 13
28 Michael Irvin, NFLN 8-8 27 M. Irvin 13
28 S. Monson 8-8 29 D. Graziano 12
28 Mike Renner, PFF 8-8 30 M. Renner 10

NOTE: M = mean (average of the 30 competitors)

That’s right. TABMathletics stands in first place of 30 competitors through the league’s first week despite the two GotW losses. It certainly helped that virtually everybody else also picked the Cardinals to beat the Patriots. Heading into Week 2, there is virtually no reason to deviate from the original predictions. Given how close Week 1’s games were (re: 11 one-possession games), no team looks significantly better or worse than expected. We’ll see if the original predictions hold strong again in Week 2.

4 comments

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  1. Robert Anderson

    Adam – It would really help the pickers and give you more cred if you posted your picks before the games actually started.

    1. tabm1327

      Apologies for a busy week, but all picks in during the London kickoff!

      1. Robert Anderson

        Thanks! Really enjoy your work!

        1. tabm1327

          HOPEFULLY, it’s quicker next week and all done before the Thursday Night Football kickoff!

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