NFL 2016 Pick’em

WEEK 17: REGULAR SEASON PICK’EM CHAMPIONSHIP CLINCHED!
With a three-game, six-point cushion on the rest of the Pick’em competition, there isn’t a whole lot of drama in Week 17 from this vantage point. If other experts get more aggressive with picks — and it happens to work out in their favor — there may be some interesting things to discuss before the postseason. However, unless something notable happens, this Pick’em champion is in the books.

Ultimately, there aren’t many games that could swing this top part of this competition. At best, five games may play a significant role: Ravens-Bengals, Texans-Titans, Bills-Jets, Cowboys-Eagles and Raiders-Broncos. Four match-ups have no playoff “leverage,” meaning the teams are either eliminated from postseason competition or already have their playoff seed locked up. Both the Ravens and Bengals are out, so motivations are more individual than team-based at this point. The edge goes to Baltimore, given that Steve Smith will play his last NFL game. The Texans already have the fourth seed locked up, by virtue of Pittsburgh’s guaranteed tiebreaker over Houston via strength of victory, while the Titans are now eliminated. Advantage goes to Houston, now that Marcus Mariota heads into the offseason having to rehab his broken leg. Both the Bills and Jets will miss the postseason, and definitely will simply play out the string. Although the Bills are a much better team overall, the firing of Rex Ryan and benching of Tyrod Taylor makes Week 17 seem quite unappetizing. At least Ryan would’ve been motivated to beat his former team. The Taylor benching makes a bigger impact, as EJ Manuel is a far step down from Taylor (which makes his benching for financial purpose quite unsettling). Suddenly, this game is a true toss-up but the consensus among top experts has the Bills winning. Finally, the Cowboys locked up the NFC’s top seed, while the Eagles begin prep for the offseason on Monday. This outcome will ultimately be dictated the usage of quarterbacks Tony Romo and Mark Sanchez. If Romo plays significant time, the Cowboys will still win despite resting several players. However, if Sanchez gets the majority of snaps, the Eagles will come away victorious. Mixed signals reached the media’s air waves, meaning this can go either way. This match-up best represents the typical Week 17 conundrum.

As for the fifth match-up — Raiders-Broncos — this one has plenty on the line. Oakland fights for an AFC West title and a first-round bye, but suddenly have to deal with losing quarterback Derek Carr to a broken leg. Denver is out of the playoffs, but now possibly has the motivation of playing for a retiring head coach. Late week speculation states that Gary Kubiak will retire due to health reasons. It already seemed likely the Broncos would want to use Week 17 as means for a quality win to get off on the right foot for 2017. Now they can also send out their Super Bowl winning coach in style. For this season, along with the match-up advantage against backup Matt McGloin, the Broncos should roll to a win.

Games of the Week (3 points each)
(10) New York Giants (10-5) at (8) Washington Redskins (8-6-1)

Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(9) Baltimore Ravens (8-7) at (25) Cincinnati Bengals (5-9-1)
(21) Houston Texans (9-6) at (18) Tennessee Titans (8-7)
(22) Carolina Panthers (6-9) at (12) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
(27) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12) at (24) Indianapolis Colts (7-8)
(1) New England Patriots (13-2) at (16) Miami Dolphins (10-5)
(28) Chicago Bears (3-12) at (15) Minnesota Vikings (7-8)
(14) Buffalo Bills (7-8) at (31) New York Jets (4-11)
(3) Dallas Cowboys (13-2) at (19) Philadelphia Eagles (6-9)
(32) Cleveland Browns (1-14) at (6) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)
(17) New Orleans Saints (7-8) at (5) Atlanta Falcons (10-5)
(20) Arizona Cardinals (6-8-1) at (29) Los Angeles Rams (4-11)
(2) Oakland Raiders (12-3) at (13) Denver Broncos (8-7)
(4) Kansas City Chiefs (11-4) at (26) San Diego Chargers (5-10)
(11) Seattle Seahawks (9-5-1) at (30) San Francisco 49ers (2-13)
(7) Green Bay Packers (9-6) at (23) Detroit Lions (9-6)

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Results: Record and Points
Week 17: 11-5 and 22 points (out of 33 possible points)
Season: 170-84-2 and 290 points (66.80 win and 66.21 point percentage)
GotW: 0-1 record (31-19-1 overall… 61.76 win percentage)
Divisional: 11-5 record (66-29-1 overall… 69.27 win percentage) [includes 10-5-1 in GOTW]
Upsets: 10-6 overall (163 ranking points)
Locks: 14-2 overall (best streak: 8 weeks)

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Week 17: Expert Records and Points (2 ties = 1 win + 1 loss)

NOTE: M = mean (average of the 30 competitors)

Well, there it is! Despite correctly picking only one of those five potential swing match-ups, the 2016 regular season Pick’em championship belongs to TABMathletics. Most of the best movers this week were in the middle of the pack, with only KC Joyner of ESPN doing something of note to dwindle our lead (re: down from six points to four points). Despite struggles through much of November and December, the stellar Week 16 made the difference in the end. The 170 wins and two ties also marked the best total of the season (along with Sam Farmer of the Los Angeles Times, Andrew Lynch of Fox Sports and Elliot Harrison of NFL Network), according to the great folks at NFL Pickwatch. Once again, it’s TABMathletics shining among the best in the world.

And yet there’s more. The postseason begins next weekend, providing 11 more match-ups worth 78 points. Even a one-game difference accounts for at least a six-point difference. Here’s where our Four Postseason Factors will come to play. Check out the website throughout to learn everything you need to know for the postseason match-ups, all of which culminate with the week-to-week postseason picks. Let’s see if the Pick’em overall championship can be earned for the third time in four years!