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Sep 08

NFL 2016 Pick’em

WEEK 11: LOW-STAKES WEEK ENDS VERY SUCCESSFUL
After a few very tough weeks, it looks like this slate of games should be a relative respite. Two match-ups missed Game of the Week status by narrow margins. If the Arizona Cardinals were just one spot higher in the TABRankings, the match-up in Minnesota would’ve been worth three points. Meanwhile, the Texans-Raiders showdown in Mexico City missed three-point status by three ranks. All that leaves in the Top 10 battle between the Eagles and Seahawks, one which the experts in this competition like in unanimity.

Therefore, we will cruise with this week’s picks. The Saints-Panthers and Titans-Colts match-ups will have the highest leverage, while the Bills-Bengals and Cardinals-Vikings match-ups may also make or break our week.

Games of the Week (3 points each)
(9) Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) at (4) Seattle Seahawks (6-2-1)

Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(13) New Orleans Saints (4-5) at (25) Carolina Panthers (3-6) **Upset of the Week**
(14) Pittsburgh Steelers (4-5) at (32) Cleveland Browns (0-10)
(19) Tennessee Titans (5-5) at (26) Indianapolis Colts (4-5)

The Rest (1 point each)
(22) Baltimore Ravens (5-4) at (3) Dallas Cowboys (8-1)
(31) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7) at (17) Detroit Lions (5-4)
(12) Buffalo Bills (4-5) at (24) Cincinnati Bengals (3-5-1)
(23) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) at (5) Kansas City Chiefs (7-2)
(28) Chicago Bears (2-7) at (11) New York Giants (6-3) **Lock of the Week**
(18) Arizona Cardinals (4-4-1) at (7) Minnesota Vikings (5-4)
(20) Miami Dolphins (5-4) at (27) Los Angeles Rams (4-5)
(1) New England Patriots (7-2) at (30) San Francisco 49ers (1-8)
(21) Green Bay Packers (4-5) at (10) Washington Redskins (5-3-1)
(15) Houston Texans (6-3) vs (2) Oakland Raiders (7-2) in Mexico City

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Results: Record and Points
Week 11: 11-3 and 15 points (out of 19 possible points)
Season: 102-57-2 and 169 points (63.98 win and 61.68 point percentage)
GotW: 1-0 record (18-16-1 overall… 52.86 win percentage)
Divisional: 2-1 record (33-17-1 overall… 65.69 win percentage) [includes 4-3-1 in GOTW]
Upsets: 7-4 overall (116 ranking points)
Locks: 9-2 overall (current streak: Chiefs, Cardinals, Giants… best streak: 6 weeks)

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Week 11: Expert Records and Points (2 ties = 1 win + 1 loss)

Rank Expert Record Rank Expert Points
1 Mike Middlehurst-Schwartz, USAT 105-56 1 Adam Dobrowolski, TABM 169
2 A. Dobrowolski 103-58 1 KC Joyner, ESPN 169
3 Chris Burke, SI 101-60 1 M. Middlehurst-Schwartz 169
3 Gordon McGuinness, PFF 101-60 4 G. McGuinness 167
3 Lorenzo Reyes, USAT 101-60 5 FiveThirtyEight Elo 165
6 FiveThirtyEight 100-61 6 L. Reyes 164
6 Kurt Warner, NFLN 100-61 7 C. Burke 163
8 K. Joyner 99-62 8 Mike Golic, ESPN 162
8 Jeff Ratcliffe, PFF 99-62 8 K. Warner 162
10 M. Golic 97-64 10 Kevin Seifert, ESPN 157
10 Steve Palazzolo, PFF 97-64 11 Pete Prisco, CBSS 156
10 Seth Wickersham, ESPN 97-64 11 S. Wickersham 156
M Mean Record 96.03-64.97 M Mean Points 155.67
13 Matt Bowen, ESPN 96-65 13 Vinnie Iyer, SN 155
13 V. Iyer 96-65 14 Football Outsiders 154
13 Steve Mariucci, NFLN 96-65 14 Nathan Jahnke, PFF 154
13 K. Seifert 96-65 14 S. Palazzolo 154
17 FB Outsiders 95-66 14 Mike Renner, PFF 154
17 Tom Pelissero, USAT 95-66 18 Adam Caplan, ESPN 153
17 M. Renner 95-66 18 Marshall Faulk, NFLN 153
20 M. Faulk 94-67 18 Dan Graziano, ESPN 153
21 A. Caplan 93-68 18 Merril Hoge, ESPN 153
21 Nate Davis, USAT 93-68 19 J. Ratcliffe 153
21 D. Graziano 93-68 23 M. Bowen 152
21 M. Hoge 93-68 24 S. Mariucci 150
21 Neil Hornsby, PFF 93-68 24 T. Pelissero 149
21 Ron Jaworski, ESPN 93-68 26 N. Hornsby 148
21 P. Prisco 93-68 27 Jarrett Bell, USAT 147
28 N. Jahnke 92-69 28 R. Jaworski 147
29 J. Bell 90-71 28 N. Davis 145
30 Sam Monson, PFF 85-76 30 S. Monson 137

NOTE: M = mean (average of the 30 competitors)

For two consecutive weeks, we failed to catch up to Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz of USA Today in the win-loss record due to a failed pick in primetime. The Bengals lost by one point, but the Packers didn’t even make it close in the second half this time around. So much for these two teams winning an urgent game to put them back in the playoff hunt. We’ll have to try again in Week 12.

Meanwhile, the points battle is getting pretty intense at the top. Only seven points separate the top nine experts, so any standout good week could put any expert at or near the number one spot. For our sake, we must avoid another showing like the one in Week 10. If we fare like we did in Week 11, things should be pretty good moving forward.

As for Week 12, things immedlately get interested with a trio of Thanksgiving games. It looks like the nightcap in Indianapolis could be spoiled by an Andrew Luck concussion, but the NFC North (Minnesota at Detroit) and NFC East (Washington at Dallas) battles will definitely set the tone for the remaining slate of games. We need to make sure those picks are correct.

4 comments

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  1. Robert Anderson

    Adam – It would really help the pickers and give you more cred if you posted your picks before the games actually started.

    1. tabm1327

      Apologies for a busy week, but all picks in during the London kickoff!

      1. Robert Anderson

        Thanks! Really enjoy your work!

        1. tabm1327

          HOPEFULLY, it’s quicker next week and all done before the Thursday Night Football kickoff!

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