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Sep 08

NFL 2016 Pick’em

WEEK 10: FIRST TRULY BAD WEEK KILLS POINTS LEAD
Another truly challenging and exciting week begins, continuing the mid-season challenges presented the parity-laden NFL in 2016. We get started with the Thursday Night Football game between the Browns and Ravens, one of which we take the home half without hesitation. While the Ravens aren’t presenting themselves to be dangerous, we won’t pick the Browns until they can prove to have a winning touch. Cleveland probably has about a 20 percent of winning, so hopefully the game will be interesting.

Beyond that, this week looks to be pretty tough, especially with four Games of the Week. We were particularly hung up on the Minnesota-Washington and Atlanta-Philadelphia games. Given the imbalanced dynamic of most of the good teams in the NFL this season, we decided to go with the teams who offer up sure scoring possessions. Washington scored 37 times on offense in eight games. Atlanta leads the league comfortably in points scored per games. New Orleans is also among the league’s best in this department. Finally, New England has a 120+ passer rating in all four games with Tom Brady under center. Those teams are our picks for this week.

Elsewhere, we run the table with the favorites, save for two battles between the AFC North and NFC East. In Pittsburgh, we expected the good Ben Roethlisberger to return against a banged-up Dallas secondary, giving a firm match-up advantage to help the Steelers edges the Cowboys. Meanwhile, in East Rutherford, the Bengals are well-rested and should threaten a Giants team that has yet to win a game by multiple possessions. This is much more a toss-up game than most expect, and we need a game for which to go against the grain. Therefore, we take the Bengals over the Giants as the game that could possibly get us back to first in the record standings.

Games of the Week (3 points each)
(6) Minnesota Vikings (5-3) at (16) Washington Redskins (4-3-1)
(5) Atlanta Falcons (6-3) at (9) Philadelphia Eagles (4-4)
(8) Denver Broncos (6-3) at (10) New Orleans Saints (4-4)
(7) Seattle Seahawks (5-2-1) at (1) New England Patriots (7-1)

Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(32) Cleveland Browns (0-9) at (20) Baltimore Ravens (4-4)
(17) Houston Texans (5-3) at (30) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6)
(31) San Francisco 49ers (1-7) at (18) Arizona Cardinals (3-4-1) **Lock of the Week**

The Rest (1 point each)
(12) Green Bay Packers (4-4) at (23) Tennessee Titans (4-5)
(24) Chicago Bears (2-6) at (26) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)
(4) Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) at (27) Carolina Panthers (3-5)
(28) Los Angeles Rams (3-5) at (29) New York Jets (3-6)
(22) Miami Dolphins (4-4) at (14) San Diego Chargers (4-5)
(2) Dallas Cowboys (7-1) at (15) Pittsburgh Steelers (4-4) **Upset of the Week**
(21) Cincinnati Bengals (3-4-1) at (11) New York Giants (5-3)

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Results: Record and Points
Week 10: 6-8 and 11 points (out of 25 possible points)
Season: 91-54-2 and 154 points (62.59 win and 60.39 point percentage)
GotW: 1-3 record (17-16-1 overall… 51.47 win percentage)
Divisional: 3-0 record (31-16-1 overall… 65.63 win percentage) [includes 4-3-1 in GOTW]
Upsets: 6-4 overall (104 ranking points)
Locks: 8-2 overall (current streak: Chiefs, Cardinals… best streak: 6 weeks)

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Week 10: Expert Records and Points (2 ties = 1 win + 1 loss)

Rank Expert Record Rank Expert Points
1 Mike Middlehurst-Schwartz, USAT 94-53 1 KC Joyner, ESPN 157
2 Adam Dobrowolski, TABM 92-55 2 A. Dobrowolski 154
3 Gordon McGuinness, PFF 91-56 2 M. Middlehurst-Schwartz 154
4 FiveThirtyEight Elo 90-57 4 G. McGuinness 153
4 K. Joyner 90-57 5 FiveThirtyEight 150
6 Jeff Ratcliffe, PFF 89-58 6 Kurt Warner, NFLN 147
6 K. Warner 89-58 7 Mike Golic, ESPN 146
8 Chris Burke, SI 88-59 7 Lorenzo Reyes, USAT 146
8 L. Reyes 88-59 9 C. Burke 145
10 Matt Bowen, ESPN 87-60 10 Dan Graziano, ESPN 144
10 Vinnie Iyer, SN 87-60 11 Kevin Seifert, ESPN 142
10 Steve Palazzolo, PFF 87-60 M Mean Points 141.27
13 M. Golic 86-61 12 V. Iyer 141
13 D. Graziano 86-61 12 S. Palazzolo 141
13 Seth Wickersham, ESPN 86-61 12 Pete Prisco, CBSS 141
M Mean Record 85.73-61.27 15 M. Bowen 140
16 Neil Hornsby, PFF 85-62 15 Merril Hoge, ESPN 140
16 Steve Mariucci, NFLN 85-62 15 Nathan Jahnke, PFF 140
16 K. Seifert 85-62 15 S. Wickersham 140
19 Tom Pelissero, USAT 84-63 19 J. Ratcliffe 139
20 Adam Caplan, ESPN 83-64 20 A. Caplan 138
20 Nate Davis, USAT 83-64 20 Marshall Faulk, NFLN 138
20 M. Faulk 83-64 22 Football Outsiders 137
20 FB Outsiders 83-64 22 Mike Renner, PFF 137
20 M. Hoge 83-64 24 Jarrett Bell, USAT 136
20 P. Prisco 83-64 24 N. Hornsby 136
20 M. Renner 83-64 26 S. Mariucci 135
27 J. Bell 82-65 27 T. Pelissero 134
27 N. Jahnke 82-65 28 N. Davis 131
27 Ron Jaworski, ESPN 82-65 28 R. Jaworski 131
30 Sam Monson, PFF 76-71 30 S. Monson 125

NOTE: M = mean (average of the 30 competitors)

Despite our terrible week, only K.C. Joyner of ESPN was the only one to surpass us in the points standings. Hopefully, this is the worst week of our season, and we can move forward to work for the lead in both the win-loss and points standings. We may have to wait a week to make our move, as Week 11 seems to be drumming up a predictable slate of games.

4 comments

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  1. Robert Anderson

    Adam – It would really help the pickers and give you more cred if you posted your picks before the games actually started.

    1. tabm1327

      Apologies for a busy week, but all picks in during the London kickoff!

      1. Robert Anderson

        Thanks! Really enjoy your work!

        1. tabm1327

          HOPEFULLY, it’s quicker next week and all done before the Thursday Night Football kickoff!

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