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Sep 08

NFL 2016 Pick’em

WEEK 9: SPLIT THROUGH DIVISIONAL GAMES DICTATES SOLID WEEK
With most of this week’s challenging games lying in the two-point category, this week could force some significant change in the Pick’em standings. For now, we get things started with Thursday Night Football match-up between the Falcons and Buccaneers. The season began with a Tampa Bay win in Atlanta, but we think the NFC South-leading Falcons even the score in the Sunshine State.

Meanwhile, Week 9 presents a 13-game slate with 10 match-ups between teams within 1.5 games of each other in win-loss record. At the least, it makes picking an upset of the week very tough. Excluding the monster advantage for the Cowboys (30 spots ahead of the Browns) and Chiefs (27 spots ahead of the Jaguars), there are six games with a 11+ rank differential. After running into some issues with the Week 8 TABRankings Sunday morning, it forced our hand into a quick fix in order sort of the best possible upsets. We finally settled on Lions-Vikings in the early afternoon, given Minnesota’s current offensive struggles and Detroit’s efficient passing.

The ultimate challenge this week lies within the six divisional match-ups that account for 13 points. Looking past the two aforementioned match-up, we still have four interesting battles. Steelers-Ravens is about as good of a rivalry as any, and Ben Roethlisberger playing in his first time back from injury will complicate matters. Jets-Dolphins seems like one that might be a bit of a trap, as Miami beat Pittsburgh and Buffalo in back-to-back games, but may have lost that juice during the bye week. Eagles-Giants is perhaps the toughest rivalry for us to pick, but the recent edge has gone to Philadelphia. Finally, the Sunday Night Football game features the Broncos-Raiders match-up, which pits strength v. strength (Denver pass D v. Oakland pass O) as Oakland gets its first marquee home game in a long time.

Games of the Week (3 points each)
(6) Denver Broncos (6-2) at (8) Oakland Raiders (6-2)
(10) Buffalo Bills (4-4) at (11) Seattle Seahawks (4-2-1)

Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(5) Atlanta Falcons (5-3) at (21) Tampa Bay Buccaners (3-4)
(9) Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3) at (24) Baltimore Ravens (3-4)
(29) New York Jets (3-5) at (20) Miami Dolphins (3-4)
(7) Philadelphia Eagles (4-3) at (18) New York Giants (4-3)
(23) Detroit Lions (4-4) at (3) Minnesota Vikings (5-2) **Upset of the Week**

The Rest (1 point each)
(2) Dallas Cowboys (6-1) at (32) Cleveland Browns (0-8)
(31) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5) at (4) Kansas City Chiefs (5-2) **Lock of the Week**
(28) Carolina Panthers (2-5) at (26) Los Angeles Rams (3-4)
(16) New Orleans Saints (3-4) at (30) San Francisco 49ers (1-6)
(22) Tennessee Titans (4-4) at (14) San Diego Chargers (3-5)
(27) Indianapolis Colts (3-5) at (12) Green Bay Packers (4-3)

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Results: Record and Points
Week 9: 9-4 and 14 points (out of 22 possible points)
Season: 85-46-2 and 143 points (64.66 win and 62.17 point percentage)
GotW: 1-1 record (16-13-1 overall… 55 win percentage)
Divisional: 3-3 record (28-16-1 overall… 63.33 win percentage) [includes 4-3-1 in GOTW]
Upsets: 6-3 overall (104 ranking points)
Locks: 7-2 overall (current streak: Chiefs… best streak: 6 weeks)

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Week 9: Expert Records and Points (2 ties = 1 win + 1 loss)

Rank Expert Record Rank Expert Points
1 Mike Middlehurst-Schwartz, USAT 88-45 1 Adam Dobrowolski, TABM 143
2 A. Dobrowolski 86-47 1 M. Middlehurst-Schwartz 143
3 Gordon McGuinness, PFF 85-48 3 KC Joyner, ESPN 141
4 Chris Burke, SI 84-49 4 G. McGuinness 140
5 Jeff Ratcliffe, PFF 82-51 5 C. Burke 137
6 FiveThirtyEight Elo 81-52 6 Mike Golic, ESPN 135
6 K. Joyner 81-52 7 FiveThirtyEight 132
6 Tom Pelissero, USAT 81-52 7 Lorenzo Reyes, USAT 132
6 Kurt Warner, NFLN 81-52 7 Kevin Seifert, ESPN 132
10 Matt Bowen, ESPN 80-53 7 K. Warner 132
10 M. Golic 80-53 11 Merril Hoge, ESPN 131
10 Steve Palazzolo, PFF 80-53 12 M. Bowen 130
13 Dan Graziano, ESPN 79-54 12 D. Graziano 130
13 Vinnie Iyer, SN 79-54 12 S. Palazzolo 130
13 L. Reyes 79-54 15 T. Pelissero 129
M Mean Record 78.77-54.23 M Mean Points 128.73
16 M. Hoge 78-55 16 Pete Prisco, CBSS 128
16 Neil Hornsby, PFF 78-55 17 Jarrett Bell, USAT 127
16 K. Seifert 78-55 17 J. Ratcliffe 127
16 Seth Wickersham, ESPN 78-55 19 V. Iyer 126
20 Steve Mariucci, NFLN 77-56 19 Nathan Jahnke, PFF 126
20 P. Prisco 77-56 21 Adam Caplan, ESPN 125
22 J. Bell 76-57 21 N. Hornsby 125
22 A. Caplan 76-57 23 Mike Renner, PFF 124
22 Nate Davis, USAT 76-57 23 S. Wickersham 124
22 Ron Jaworski, ESPN 76-57 25 Football Outsiders 123
22 M. Renner 76-57 26 Marshall Faulk, NFLN 122
27 FB Outsiders 75-58 27 S. Mariucci 120
28 M. Faulk 74-59 28 N. Davis 119
28 N. Jahnke 74-59 29 R. Jaworski 118
30 Sam Monson, PFF 68-65 30 S. Monson 111

NOTE: M = mean (average of the 30 competitors)

Thanks in large part to a necessary switch from the Vikings to the Lions, in order to fulfill our needs for an “Upset of the Week,” we keep a positioning atop the points standings and in second place in the win-loss standings. If anything, Week 9 helped us to gain separation from the rest, excluding the few top competitors. Moving forward to another tough slate of games in Week 10, we would best be advise to develop a gameplan that would allow us to once again hold serve.

4 comments

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  1. Robert Anderson

    Adam – It would really help the pickers and give you more cred if you posted your picks before the games actually started.

    1. tabm1327

      Apologies for a busy week, but all picks in during the London kickoff!

      1. Robert Anderson

        Thanks! Really enjoy your work!

        1. tabm1327

          HOPEFULLY, it’s quicker next week and all done before the Thursday Night Football kickoff!

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