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Dec 26

NFL 2014 Pick’em: Week 16 Results

We waited all the way until Friday, but the predictions for the panelists for NFL Gamdeday First are still not available on NFL.com. Therefore, we will go with 22 competitors for the time being. If it gets posted later, we will add those panelists again after Week 17.

Now to the predictions for Week 16.

Games of the Week (3 points each)
(9) Baltimore Ravens (9-5) at (15) Houston Texans (7-7)
(6) Indianapolis Colts (10-4) at (13) Dallas Cowboys (10-4)
(5) Seattle Seahawks (10-4) at (4) Arizona Cardinals (11-3)
(2) Denver Broncos (11-3) at (12) Cincinnati Bengals (9-4-1)

Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(30) Tennessee Titans (2-12) at (29) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12)
(11) Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) at (31) Washington Redskins (3-11) **Upset of the Week**
(8) Detroit Lions (10-4) at (26) Chicago Bears (5-9)
(19) Atlanta Falcons (5-9) at (22) New Orleans Saints (6-8)
(1) New England Patriots (11-3) at (27) New York Jets (3-11)

The Rest (1 point each)
(17) San Diego Chargers (8-6) at (18) San Francisco 49ers (7-7)
(25) Minnesota Vikings (6-8) at (10) Miami Dolphins (7-7)
(21) Cleveland Browns (7-7) at (24) Carolina Panthers (5-8-1)
(3) Green Bay Packers (10-4) at (32) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12) **Lock of the Week**
(14) Kansas City Chiefs (8-6) at (16) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5)
(23) New York Giants (5-9) at (20) St. Louis Rams (6-8)
(7) Buffalo Bills (8-6) at (28) Oakland Raiders (2-12)

We only did fairly well this week, as we went very conservative in our picks and declined to consider the inevitable upsets of the week. However, we did correctly predict our lone upset of the week, which allows us to finish with a winning record for our upsets of the week. Finishing 9-7 in our upset specials could be better, but it’s also not bad at all. Meanwhile, we finish 15-1 for the lock of the week, which seems to be as good as most normal situations warrant. It’s very tough to go 16-0, and this year illustrated why it’s tough.

Check out this week’s and the overall numbers:

  • This week’s record and points: 11-5 and 19 points
  • Overall record and points: 175-64-1 and 305.5 points (73.13 win percentage)
  • Games of the Week: 2-2 this week (40-13 overall… 75.47 win percentage)
  • Divisional Games: 5-1 this week (60-20 overall… 75 win percentage) [includes 10-4 in GOTW]
  • Upset of the Week: 9-7 overall (176 ranking points… 56.25 win percentage)
  • Lock of the Week: 15-1 overall (current streak: Eagles, Colts, Lions, Ravens and Packers… best streak: 10 weeks)

Now for the competition, which just became a battle of TABM v. 21 experts. Experts from a few different publications will compete. We use Football Outsiders as one of our top competitors. Of course, there also needs to be a mainstream presence. Thus, the competition also includes the 13 experts from ESPN with online predictions and nine experts from NFL Network who work on either Gameday First or Gameday Morning. Finally, we close the competition panel with Pete Prisco of CBS Sports and Don Banks of Sports Illustrated.

Table 1: Expert Records and Points

Rank Expert Record Rank Expert Points
1 TABMathletics 175.5-64.5 1 TABM 305.5
2 Cris Carter, ESPN 166.5-73.5 2 KC Joyner, ESPN 286.5
2 Joyner 166.5-73.5 3 Carter 284.5
4 Tom Jackson, ESPN 165.5-74.5 4 Pete Prisco, CBS 283.5
5 Ron Jaworski, ESPN 164.5-75.5 5 Jackson 280.5
6 Prisco 163.5-76.5 6 Jaworski 278.5
7 Michael Irvin, NFLN 162.5-77.5 7 Irvin 277.5
8 Seth Wickersham, ESPN 160.5-79.5 8 Don Banks, SI 275.5
9 Banks 159.5-80.5 9 Steve Mariucci, NFLN 274.5
9 Mariucci 159.5-80.5 10 Wickersham 272.5
M Mean Record 156.5-83.5 M Mean Points 266.5
11 Marshall Faulk, NFLN 155.5-84.5 11 Faulk 261.5
12 Kurt Warner, NFLN 154.5-85.5 12 Mark Schlereth, ESPN 259.5
13 Erik Allen, ESPN 153.5-86.5 13 Adam Schefter, ESPN 258.5
14 Schefter 152.5-87.5 14 Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN 256.5
14 Schlereth 152.5-87.5 15 Football Outsiders 255.5
16 FO 150.5-89.5 15 Warner 255.5
17 Mike Golic, ESPN 149.5-90.5 17 Allen 254.5
17 Johnson 149.5-90.5 17 Golic 254.5
19 Merril Hoge, ESPN 148.5-91.5 19 Hoge 253.5
20 Mike Ditka, ESPN 144.5-95.5 20 Ditka 247.5
20 Chris Mortensen, ESPN 144.5-95.5 21 Warren Sapp, NFLN 244.5
22 Sapp 143.5-96.5 22 Mortensen 242.5

NOTE: M = mean (average of the 22 competitors).

Overall, Jamey Eisenberg of CBS Sports and the Pickwatch users lead the rest of the experts (among 135) but trail TABMathletics by eight games, according to the awesome people at NFL Pickwatch.

We’re pretty much guaranteed the regular season championship and the overall championship for best record. However, we could still be best served building our points lead in case we meet misfortune in the postseason.  We have a chance to build that lead in a Week 17 that features all intra-divisional games, thus we’re dealing with at least 32 points. Until then…

2 comments

  1. Richard cardin

    we need week 17 picks before the games ,not after

    1. tabm1327

      The Week 17 picks are up! Check them out if you’d like.

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