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NFL15 Preview

If you haven’t yet checked out our work in the TABM NFL Previews, now’s the time to start doing so. You’re missing out on arguably the most accurate and in-depth regression-based seasonal forecast available. After two years of rousing success, we hope that the 2015 NFL Preview can continue to live up to the expectations. But first, let’s recap our success.

The 2013 NFL Preview did a stellar job of projecting changes and predicting outcomes in the 2013 season. Our “Five Factors” of regression accomplished greater than a 90 percent success rate. Meanwhile, our season predictions correctly forecasted all six NFC playoff teams reaching the second season. Then, of course, there was correctly predicting that the Seattle Seahawks would win Super Bowl XLVIII. Combine that our better-than-rest Pick’em results, and we were a straight-up winner.

The 2014 NFL Preview gave us much of the same. Our “Five Factors” feature took a forward step in success, improving to nearly a 95 percent success rate. Our season predictions continued to shine bright as well, as we predicted the regular season win-loss record of 24 teams within a two-game margin of error. That tops virtually every other major sports publication out there. Combine that with our continued dominance in the NFL Pick’em, and we still have what it takes to be the top dawg in NFL macroanalysis.

So what’s to come for the 2015 NFL Preview? We hope it’s more of the same in regards to our success. This preview involves the same three stages of analysis we had last season. First, we will look at eight featured factors for regression on a league-wide scale. Second, we will look at five factors for regression for each NFL team. Finally, we will give predictions for the upcoming NFL season, complete with a projected win range for each team and a look at who has the favorable playoff match-ups, given the predicted league standings.

The featured factors section will for the first time feature of recap of in-season regression analysis from the previous season. We close the book on several chapters we initially addressing during the 2014 NFL season. Beyond that, we have the usual tricks of sleeve for 2015.

We expect this preview to be our best work yet. Once again, we will assess our own work at the end of the season. Enjoy the preview!


Featured Factors for Regression
1: The TABMathletics In-Season Headlines
2: The Outliers in Relative Yards per Play
3: The Receiving Streaks Set by Antonio Brown
4: The (Ir)Regressible Success of J.J. Watt
5: The Best Relative Team Rushing Seasons
6: The Outliers in Strength of Victory
7: The League-Wide Sack Impact, Part 2
8: The Expected Win Differential Revisited

Five Factors of Regression
1: AFC North (Ravens, Bengals, Browns and Steelers)
2: AFC East (Bills, Dolphins, Patriots and Jets)
3: AFC South (Texans, Colts, Jaguars and Titans)
4: AFC West (Broncos, Chiefs, Raiders and Chargers)
5: NFC North (Bears, Lions, Packers and Vikings)
6: NFC East (Cowboys, Giants, Eagles and Redskins)
7: NFC South (Falcons, Panthers, Saints and Buccaneers)
8: NFC West (Cardinals, 49ers, Seahawks and Rams)

NFL Predictions and Projections
Final: 2015 NFL Season Predictions

Bonus: Recap of the 2015 NFL Preview
Recap: Five Factors of Regression
Recap: Season Predictions